Monday July 9, 2007 - 05:25:58 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHFPrice:
Resistance: 1.2197 ... 1.2215 ... 1.2237 ... 1.2270
Support: 1.2161 ... 1.2126 ... 1.2089 ... 1.2029
With the peak seen between 1.2215-37 the next leg should now be lower to 1.1970-1.2003
The 1.2215-37 resistance capped well on Friday and this should mean that any upside attempts today should be for corrections only. Thus only look to attempt long positions on a break above a minimum of 1.2215 but keep stops tight. A stronger reversal signal higher only comes on a break above 1.2237-42. If seen then first stop should be the 1.2305-10 pivot area and then the 1.2341 and 1.2379 levels.
Direct losses have been seen and this now probably puts a cap on price around 1.2205-30. Thus only look for a larger reversal higher on a move above 1.2240 & then the 1.2270 pivot resistance. (July 3rd)
The cap on Friday within the 1.2215-37 resistance area is positive for the bearish view. This should keep any retracements below the 1.2215-20 area and allow a breach of 1.2161 to trigger losses through 1.2126 and down to the 1.2089-00 area. While this could cause a pullback it should be quite shallow and eventually lead to losses to the 1.1972-1.2003 area.
The downside has broken down earlier than anticipated but this does suit the medium term view better. However, while price remains below 1.2205-30 we should see additional losses to 1.1874-78. (July 3rd)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
So far so good. Wave (b) stalled nicely between the 50% & 58.6% retracement and from there the losses have been positive although have not yet really confirmed additional losses. However, while the 76.4% retracement at 1.2215 caps I still look for a move below the 1.2161 low seen after Friday‚Äôs high to trigger losses down to the prior Wave b low at 1.2100 which could cause a small pullback but overall the move should progress to the 161.8%-176.4% projection in Wave (iii) around 1.1972-1.2003. We do need to be careful then but I suspect this will prove to be only Wave iii of Wave (c) with the 138.2% target at 1.1884 more likely which is where Wave (iii) will have extended by 223.6%.
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