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Monday July 9, 2007 - 10:40:47 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition 6:15 EDT

Key Points
• EUR-USD retains positive technical tone despite strong payroll number, but 1.3683 needs to break for this to extend any further.
• JPY steady – slight improvement in machinery orders.
• GBP improves despite weaker than expected PPI report.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD displayed some impressive resilience on Friday after the stronger than expected US employment report, reflecting the positive technical tone that remains in place after the advances seen over the previous week. Key now is whether EUR-USD can push on further and a break and close of 1.3683 (Apr 27 high) will be required for this to happen. On the downside, 1.3555 needs to hold to maintain the immediate positive bias, although below 1.3450-85 will be required to eradicate it completely.

Latest IMM positioning data showed net spec EUR-USD longs rising to 67,433 contracts as of last Tuesday from 46,341 the previous week. However, while this seems fairly high, it is well off the numbers seen in the middle of May when net longs reached as high as 119,538 contracts. On this basis, positioning would not appear to be a major constraint to EUR-USD upside. The big question is whether there is much appetite to extend such positioning any further given the ongoing strengthening in the US data. Friday’s retail sales data is this week’s main feature in the US.

GBP has been in the ascendancy this morning, despite a weaker than expected outcome on core PPI output. The y/y rate on core output prices eased back to +2.1%, the lowest seen since Sep 2006, although this only had a very short-lived negative impact on GBP. The data will provide some degree of comfort to those concerned about inflation, although it remains slightly inconsistent with the strength in some of the business surveys on price expectations such as the CBI (see chart). A sustained move back below 2% will be required before the MPC starts breathing a little easier. Cable has now regained some of the positive momentum it lost on Thursday and this will remain intact as long as it stays above 2.0100-20.

A decent m/m rebound in core machinery orders out of Japan provided a temporary boost to the JPY before it weakened during the rest of the Asian session. However, the JPY has gone on to recover this lost ground through the European morning. The rise in orders is a small step forward after the reverses seen in recent months. Further solid m/m advances will be required in the next couple of months to resurrect optimism about this sector, with the core trend still subdued (see chart).

Opposition to a BoJ rate hike in Aug also materialised with LDP policy panel chief Goto stating that such a move was unacceptable given current price trends. Even if the BoJ does go ahead and raise rates by 25bp in August, it is unlikely to make much impression on rate expectations for the coming 12- 18 months. A much stronger data set is required for this to happen and until it does the JPY will remain highly vulnerable, at least from a domestic point of view.

Day Ahead
UK – BRC retail sales are due tonight and a poor reading looks likely after the very poor weather witnessed in June. Market impact may be dampened by the fact that most will be aware that sales have probably been depressed by temporary weather-related factors.

Data/event EDT Consensus*
US Consumer credit (May) 15.00 +$5.5bn
GB BRC retail survey (Jun) y/y 19.01 +1.8% last
AU Housing finance (May) m/m 21.30 +0.5%
AU NAB business confidence (Jun) 21.30 +15 last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Machinery orders core (May) m/m +5.9% +1.9%
JP M2 plus CDs (May) y/y +1.8% +1.5%
JP Bank lending (May) y/y +0.7% +0.9% last
AU ANZ job ads (Jun) m/m -0.8% +10.3% last
DE Trade balance (May) €17.5bn €15.5bn
DE Current account (May) €9.6bn €9.0bn
GB PPI input (Jun) m/m +0.6% +1.0%
GB PPI output (Jun) m/m +0.2% +0.3%
GB PPI output core (Jun) y/y +2.1% +2.4%
DE Ind prod (May) m/m +1.9% +1.9%

* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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