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Monday July 9, 2007 - 21:00:36 GMT
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Forex News - Canada dollar falls back from 30-yr high, bonds up

Canada dollar falls back from 30-yr high, bonds up
Mon Jul 9, 2007 4:42PM EDT

By Frank Pingue

TORONTO, July 9 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar raced to a
30-year high versus the U.S. currency on Monday before losing
steam and closing a touch lower despite high expectations that
the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates on Tuesday.

Bond prices, with no Canadian data to consider, recouped
some of the sharp losses suffered last week due to upbeat
economic indicators.

The Canadian dollar closed at C$1.0496 to the U.S. dollar,
or 95.27 U.S. cents, down from C$1.0490 to the U.S. dollar, or
95.33 U.S. cents, at Friday's session close.

Earlier, the red-hot Canadian dollar reached C$1.0445, or
95.74 U.S. cents, which marked its highest level since March
1977 and put it 12 percent above the 15-month low it dropped to
in February.

The bulk of the currency's torrid climb has been linked to
widespread expectations for higher interest rates,
merger-related interest, strong Canadian data, a weaker U.S.
dollar, and a jump in commodity prices.

"I think some of (the move on Monday) was just good,
old-fashioned momentum and it just drives home the positive
sentiment that is behind the Canadian dollar at this point,"
said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital

"It does seem like when there's not much going on, the
(Canadian) currency appreciates ... I think the bottom line is
the path of least resistance for the currency is stronger."

Last week's Canadian jobs data, which came in more than
double the consensus estimate, cemented widespread expectations
that the Bank of Canada will tighten monetary policy on Tuesday
for the first time since May 2006.

The market will also pay close attention to the central
bank's accompanying statement for any hints on whether it will
keep raising rates. The Bank of Canada's monetary policy update
on Thursday will also draw plenty of attention.

A Reuters poll conducted after the jobs data on Friday
showed that all 13 of Canada's primary dealers expect a 25
basis point hike to 4.50 percent on Tuesday, and the majority
expect another hike in September.


Canadian bond prices managed to reclaim some of the heavy
losses suffered last week as they followed an upturn in the
bigger U.S. treasury market.

But the rise in Canadian bond prices was muted given the
potential for a hawkish Bank of Canada statement on Tuesday.

"We did see the U.S. treasury market reverse some of its
losses and I think that led the way for a bit of a more muted
session in Canada ahead of tomorrow's statement by the bank,"
Porter said. "And there's a bit of a sense that the selloff
last week might have gone a little too far."

The two-year bond rose 4 Canadian cents to C$98.28 to yield
4.710 percent, while the 10-year bond jumped 27 Canadian cents
to C$95.17 to yield 4.670 percent.

The yield spread between the two-year and 10-year bond
moved to -4.0 basis points from -2.5 at the previous close.

The 30-year bond increased 65 Canadian cents to C$117.40 to
yield 4.594 percent. In the United States, the 30-year treasury
yielded 5.238 percent.

The three-month when-issued T-bill yielded 4.48 percent,
down from 4.49 percent at the previous close.

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