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Tuesday July 10, 2007 - 10:32:50 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition 6:10 EDT

Key Points
Key Points
• EUR-USD leads the way in Europe.
• Bernanke speech on inflation will be watched closely for signs of any subtle shifts in the Fed’s approach to monitoring inflation.
• BoC policy announcement features.

Market Outlook

Few fresh factors have emerged overnight, with EUR-USD and cable having firmed up in Europe after a lacklustre Asian session. In terms of the majors there is not an enormous amount of potentially market moving information scheduled for today, although a hastily arranged speech by Bernanke on inflation (does he have something important to tell us ahead of the semi-annual policy testimony – date yet to be confirmed?) will attract some interest. This is not until later in the day (13.00 EDT) and any uncertainty about what might be said could discourage market action initially. The Bernanke speech is previewed below.

The levels of importance remain the same on EUR-USD – 1.3683 on the topside, 1.3555 and 1.3450-85 on the downside. Cable positive momentum looks like being maintained as long as it can stay above 2.0100-20 – key level on the upside is the recent high at 2.0208.

UK BRC retail sales released last night were stronger than the market had anticipated, as there was a feeling that the very poor weather would have undermined spending. However, the BRC also note that May/June sales had been shaping up so poorly that discounting to clear excess stock had been brought forward, supporting the y/y rate calculation for June. The situation is unclear, but the MPC will need tangible evidence of consumer retrenchment before it backs off from further monetary tightening. MPC member Gieve (who probably voted for a hike last week) said there were signs that higher rates were starting to have some impact on housing and consumer activity, but that it was not clear cut. He said "the issue for me is have we done enough to bring inflation back on a sustained level of two per cent in the long term?”

The NZD was hit by a sizeable drop in the latest quarterly business confidence number from the NZIER. The headline number of -37 was the lowest since -44 in Q2 last year. Thedevelopment perhaps shows how sensitive the NZD will be toany signs that higher interest rates are starting to have animpact and key this week will be Friday’s retail sales data. Acorrective bias will remain in place while it stays below 0.7790-0.7800.

Day Ahead
Canada – the Bank of Canada policy announcement is the main feature and the market is looking for a 25bp rate hike. The BoC signalled at its last meeting on May 29 that a rate hike may be necessary, but most of the domestic economic data has been a little disappointing since then. In contrast, the US data, which the BoC also monitors, has been improving. Overall, there is probably enough for the BoC to proceed and hike rates, especially given that it is largely priced in, but it is not an absolute done deal. If they do hike rates the main market focus will be on what they say in the statement, to see how much risk is being attributed to a further move in coming months. If there are any signs of hawkishness, this is likely to ensure a continuation of the recent run in USD-CAD, although parity is likely to hold for some time yet. On balance, the BoC may be slightly more equivocal given that some of the data is softer. The BoC will also release a Monetary Policy Report Update on Thursday.

US – Bernanke is due to speak on inflation today and the market will be looking at the comments for hints on a number of issues. First, will be his general thoughts about the outlook for inflation, which are unlikely to be controversial as they have been well communicated in Fed statements etc. Second, is the issue between headline and core CPI. The market has become anxious that the Fed may be focusing more on headline rather than just core CPI. One reason for this would be that the strength in food and energy prices has become more than a temporary phenomenon and is in danger of influencing price expectations in general. This is potentially the most interesting aspect of his speech today, if he chooses to address it. Third, will be any comments about inflation targeting and whether he can signal that the FOMC in general is any closer to forming a consensus on how best to proceed.

Data/event EDT Consensus*
US Chain store sls (w/e Jul 7) w/w 07.45 +0.1% last
CA Housing starts (Jun) 08.15 215k
US Redbook sls (w/e Jul 7) m/m 08.55 -1.1% last
CA BoC policy announcement 09.00 +25bp
US Bernanke spks on inflation 13.00
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Jul 8) 17.00 -7 last
JP Domestic CGPI (Jun) y/y 19.50 +2.4%
JP Dom CGPI finished gds (Jun) y/y 19.50 +0.2% last
JP Current account (May, sa) 19.50 ¥2.0trn
AU Consumer sentiment (Jul) m/m 21.30 -2.0% last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Consumer credit (May) +$12.9bn +$5.5bn
NZ NZIER business survey (Q2) -37 -15 last
GB BRC retail survey (Jun) y/y +3.0% +1.8% last
AU Housing finance (May) m/m +0.1% +0.5%
AU NAB business confidence (Jun) +15 +15 last
DE WPI (Jun) y/y +1.9% +2.1%
FR Ind prod (May) m/m +0.4% +0.6%
SE Ind prod (May) m/m +0.4% +1.1%
SE CPI (Jun) y/y +1.9% +1.7%
SE CPI UND1X (Jun) y/y +1.0% +0.9%
NO CPI (Jun) y/y +0.4% +0.5%
NO CPIX (Jun) y/y +1.3% +1.5%
IT Ind prod (May) m/m +0.9% +1.1%
SE AMS Unemp rate (Jun, nsa) 3.6% 3.8%
GB Global trade balance (May) -£6.3bn -£6.7bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (May) -£3.5bn -£4.0bn

* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


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