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Wednesday July 11, 2007 - 10:51:38 GMT
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Forex Research - Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily – U.S. Edition 5:45 EDT

Key Points
• USD near-term technical risk remains to downside against the majors.
• But this could be checked if there is global contagion from sub-prime fears and flows back into the USD investor base.
• Bernanke fails to come up with anything concrete on inflation, but hints that a change in communications policy may be in the offing.

Market Outlook

The USD has remained weak overnight, aided by the systemic risk triggered by yesterday’s ratings news from S&P and the ongoing negative technical picture, which was compounded yesterday by the EUR-USD break and close above the previous high of 1.3683. With negative momentum firmly in place further USD weakness now looks likely in the very short-term. Technically speaking the repeat cycle analysis we talked about last week would suggest scope up to 1.41.

However, one should be careful about the interplay between the USD and developments in global markets. Yesterday’s fresh concerns about sub-prime mortgages and CDOs focuses attention on possible systemic risk in the US, but if global markets in general are dragged into this mess, some USD supportive flows could be triggered as money moves back into the USD investor base. Furthermore, any global anxieties and heightened investor risk may weigh on positioning in general and this could also prompt some position closing in the USD’s favour. The JPY stands to benefit the most as long as this uncertainty is not checked. Also, if the JPY advance does gather pace, the high-yielders like the AUD and NZD are likely to suffer to the extent that they also weaken against the USD.

Overall, it is not clear whether these latest developments will be sufficient to bring an end to the latest halcyon period for equity markets. A much greater deterioration in the global macroeconomic outlook may be required for this to happen, especially as in the majority of cases equity market valuations are not that stretched. If this is the case, then JPY weakness will resurface.

Bernanke’s speech failed to provide any fresh clues about the
FOMC approach to monitoring inflation, stating that core inflation was still the most important input in forecasting future inflation. However, he did acknowledge the potential importance of movements in non-core inflation variables - "If inflation expectations are well anchored, changes in energy (and food) prices should have relatively little influence on 'core' inflation, that is, inflation excluding the prices of food and energy". He also said that the Fed will come forward in the “reasonably near future” with ways of improving the way it communicates with the public. Whether this means an inflation target remains to be seen, as there does not appear to have been much consensus on this issue on the FOMC in recent months. However, there is likely to be speculation about him revealing something new at next week’s semi-annual policy testimonies (Wednesday and Thursday).
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 05.45 EDT Wednesday July 11 2007

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*
US Mortgage apps – purchases w/w 07.00 +2.0% last
US Fed’s Plosser on housing & policy 11.00
GB RICS house prices (Jun) 19.01 21%
AU Employment (Jun) 21.30 +15k
AU Unemployment rate (Jun) 21.30 4.2%
JP BoJ rate announcement unch
JP Ind prod (May, final) m/m 0.30 -0.4%


Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Domestic CGPI (Jun) y/y +2.3% +2.4%
JP Dom CGPI finished gds (Jun) y/y +0.2% +0.2% last
JP Current account (May, sa) ¥2.2trn ¥2.0trn
AU Consumer sentiment (Jul) m/m -0.6% -2.0% last
JP Consumer confidence (Jun) 45.0 47.7

* Consensus unless stated

©2007, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.


 

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