Wednesday July 11, 2007 - 12:46:24 GMT
Share This Story
GFT - www.gftforex.com
Daily Forex Market Commentary for July 11,2007
Wednesday, July 11, 2007 8:00 GMT
Daily Forex Market Commentary
By: Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT
Visit GFT to learn more
The dollar tumbled sharply versus the European currencies on Tuesday, and even dollar/yen fell. The prime reason is the subprime crisis, as two leading rating agencies downgraded bonds backed by the risky mortgages. There is increasing risk to the yen crosses, but only a break below 121.90 in dollar/yen would amplify this risk.
Euro/dollar surged to a new lifetime high (or about a 12-year high in legacy terms) on Tuesday. The medium term view is bullish.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.3785. A break above it would signal a further aggressive rally to 1.3887.
Initial support is at 1.3685. Below the strong support at 1.3610, the next level is 1.3570.
Oscillators are rising.
Dollar/yen fell to its lowest level since June 13 and tested the support of its rising trendline and from a Fibonacci retracement level at around 121.90. The line held so far, but a lot rides on it (such as enormous long cross positions against the yen) and the pressure may last today as well.
Initial support is now at 121.50. Strong supports follow at 120.89 and 120.65. Distant support is then seen at 120.10.
Above 122.00, key resistance is in place at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00. Distant resistance is at 123.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
Sterling/dollar surged to a new 26 1/4-year high on Tuesday, so clearly the overbought pair moved safely away from the edge of the abyss...Hold long positions with a trailing stop.
Above 2.0272 there is resistance is at 2.0325. Above it, resistance is now seen at 2.0370. Distant resistance looms at 2.0430.
Immediate support is now seen at 2.0200. Only a break below 2.0150 on a closing basis would signal a more sustained decline, but this is unlikely. Distant support is at 1.9990.
Oscillators are rising.
Dollar/Swiss franc sank to a 2 Â½-month low on Tuesday and the medium-term outlook turned negative.
It briefly pierced the support of a trendline rising since late 2004 and the pressure should continue. Initial support is now seen at 1.1995 from a pivot low. Distant support follows at 1.1883.
Above 1.2070 resistance is now seen at 1.2100. Next level comes at 1.2175. Distant resistance is at 1.2235.
Oscillators are falling.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."