Friday July 13, 2007 - 04:22:06 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPYPrice:
Resistance: 122.62 ... 122.81 ... 123.04 ... 123.38
Support: 122.30 ... 122.05 ... 121.83 ... 121.64
Care â€“ the trend resistance is rising but we should see an eventual top between 122.62-123.04
Price has very frustratingly edged higher along with the prior channel support that now provides resistance. We do appear to be in need of a slightly deeper pullback. Only a direct break above this morningâ€™s 122.62 high would keep the pressure higher but there isnâ€™t much room for gains. 122.81 also provides resistance and then 123.04 (though this may need to wait until next week.) Thus any stronger bullish stance will require breach of 123.04 and if seen would see a return to 123.65 and 124.13.
The prior daily channel support rises each day and we need to allow for this. However, only above 123.04 would suggest we are going to see a direct rally through 124.13 to 124.86 & possibly 125.54. (July 13th)
I retain a bearish medium term view but trying to catch the top has been frustrating and within this we need to allow for the rising prior daily channel low. There is room for a correction now but just as yesterday we really need a move below 122.80 to trigger stronger losses. Once this finally occurs I can fine-tune the target but this should be below 119.00 with 118.25-85 looking possible.
The loss of 122.97 has driven price lower and this looks to have a minimum target at 119.38 and I suspect 118.58-65 where a correction is likely. Eventual target over time should be below 117.00. (July 11th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I can see two completed ABC moves, the first to 121.85, the Wave x to 121.05 and what appears to be another ABC pattern to 122.62 which is also the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 123.65. A 50% retracement in a second Wave x would target the 121.80 support again and be aware that a third ABC pattern can then move back higher in line with the prior channel support.
I have also now put in an alternative count that would have the 123.65 high as Wave X and thus the decline to 120.96 was Wave â€“a- and we are now in the process of Wave â€“b-. This corrective structure appears more appropriate due to the depth of the pullback. Once completed we can begin to look for the target area which I feel will be between 118.25-85.
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