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Tuesday July 17, 2007 - 03:15:25 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD

Price: 2.0362

Resistance: 2.0380 ... 2.0404 ... 2.0446 ... 1.0466

Support: 2.0348 ... 2.0318 ... 2.0302 ... 2.0282

Bias: I suspect the 2.0380-04 level should hold for a pullback towards 2.0236-58

Daily Bullish: In fact we saw price rally all the way to the 2.0404 resistance which has held. I suspect that is it for now and we shall have to wait for better buying opportunities. Thus a stronger bullish stance will require a clean break above 2.0405 and only if seen would I then look for gains through to 2.0466 and possibly 2.0505. Care this area may hold for a pullback. Only above extends directly to the higher end target at 2.0569.

MT Bullish: Progress has been made and I think we are really close to a major higher. The 2.0200-40 area must support for a final push to 2.0505 and quite probably 2.0569. (July 17th)

Daily Bearish: The test of 2.0404 capped and this does suggest a return lower within a correction. We should now see the 2.0380 level cap (max 2.0404) with a break below this morning’s low at 2.0348 triggering follow-through to 2.0302 at least. Take care this may well force a pullback. Next support is at 2.0282 which, if seen directly (without a correction from 2.0302) should provide that correction before a final move down to the 2.0236-58 area which should be the base. Also note support at 2.0210.

MT Bearish: While 2.0174-2.0211 supports the minimum target remains at 2.0505 and at most 2.0569. This broad resistance area should provide a good selling opportunity for a larger decline. (July 16th)


ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

16th July

The last few days have made the wave structure a little unclear but I still favor the 2.0365-89 area as the peak in Wave (a) of Wave (v) and this should therefore cause a 50%-61.8% pullback in Wave (b) towards 2.0174-2.0211. I shall need to fine-tune this but overall the upside target for the larger rally remains at 2.0505 minimum and possibly the 2.0569 level where Wave (C) will equal Wave (A).

17th July

The 2.0402 peak represented a small 38.2% expansion within an expanded flat Wave (b) and thus we should see Wave efc move back down to the Wave efa level at 2.0258 and possibly just below to the 41.4% pullback in Wave (b) at 2.0236. Also note the 50% pullback at 2.0210. From this low look for the final leg higher to 2.0505 & probably 2.0569.

Ian Copsey

 

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