Wednesday July 18, 2007 - 05:20:26 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
Resistance: 1.1995 ... 1.2034 ... 1.2066 ... 1.2093
Support: 1.1971 ... 1.1951 ... 1.1918 ... 1.1884
Bias: While this morningâ€™s 1.1971 support holds there is risk of pullback â€“ but respect a break for 1.1884
Daily Bullish: Well, while the move was messy we have seen a test of the 1.1972 support this morning and it has held but hasnâ€™t produced any stronger reaction higher yet. To see the upside come under stronger pressure we need a move back above the 1.2000 level again while a break then of 1.2034-37 will confirm stronger gains. These should move through the 1.2066 high and onto 1.2093 at least and probably 1.2125-57.
MT Bullish: While 1.1968-72 supports I feel the wave structure will imply a recovery over a few days towards the 1.2132-63 area at least and at most 1.2193. Only above 1.2200 would cause an earlier stronger move higher. (July 16th)
Daily Bearish: The 1.1972 level was tested this morning but the bounce hasnâ€™t (so far) been too strong. Thus we must be on the alert for a break of the 1.1970 low seen this morning and if it occurs then we should see follow-through to 1.1918 at least and I then suspect the 1.1874-84 area which is stronger.
MT Bearish: The downside remains though the eventual target may not be as deep as previously anticipated. For now the 1.2136-67 area needs to cap to keep the downward risk for 1.1874-84 at least. (July 13th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Has this morningâ€™s low at 1.1971 satisfied the 176.4% projection in Wave (iii)? Probably and with a bullish divergence the risk does seem that way. Within a Wave (iv) Iâ€™d be looking for a minimum of a 41.4% retracement which lies at 1.2125 and probably a 50% correction at 1.2157 but suspect this area should cap.
A break back above the 1.2000 pivot level will help while above the 1.2037 corrective high confirms.
Any direct loss of 1.1970 would imply losses to a 76.4% projection in a Wave v at 1.1874-84 at least.
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