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Wednesday July 18, 2007 - 12:17:45 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 18-July-2007....1150 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.2025/29….…… Holding Short
--------------------------------------
R: 1.2030 / 1.2050 / 1.2070
S: 1.1990 / 1.1960
USD-CHF has bounced back after hitting low of 1.1961 in the morning. With the day’s rally, the pair has come close to its important Resistance of 1.2030, which is the statistically projected Max High for the day. A move above that may result in the recovery continuing towards 1.2050 or 1.2070.
On the downside the Supports are at 1.1990 and then at 1.1960. The bias for the pair is cautious while 1.2070 holds and we are holding short position.

Holding:
USD 25K Short at 1.1979, SL 1.2045, TP 1.1890


 
 GBP-USD @ 2.0484/89….Crucial Resistance at 2.0523
------------------------------------
R: 2.0523 / 2.0551 / 2.0568
S: 2.0465 / 2.0432 / 2.0410
In the morning we had mentioned that the upmove in GBP-USD was looking stretched. Take a look at the Weekly charts and draw a trendline connecting the Highs at 1.8503 (Sep-05) and 1.9849 (Dec-06). This line provides a Resistance at 2.0523. A spike up to 2.0551 has been seen during the day, but the market has retreated a bit and is trading below 2.0523. Whether the market closes above or below 2.0523 this week will set the trend for the coming weeks. A close below 2.0523 could suggest a corrective fall towards 2.0000.

One way to trade this might be to buy and Out-of-Money Call at 2.06 and an Out-of-Money Put at 2.0400. Please let us know if you need pricing/ payout of this, or for any other strategy.

No Cash/ Forward/ Futures market trade can be recommended at the moment.


 
 AUD-USD @ 0.8759/63………..Buy a Dip
----------------------------------
R: 0.8775-80 / 0.8800-10
S: 0.8750 / 0.8713
AUD-USD has had a small dip during the day and with that the pair has come near its good short term Support of 0.8750, which is expected to hold today. A break below this could produce further profit booking towards 0.8713, the statistically projected Max Low for the day.
On the upside the Resistance is at 0.8775-80 and then at 0.8800-10. The bias for the pair is positive and would like to buy a dip.

Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 20K at 0.8745, SL 0.8690 (down from 0.8720), TP 0.8785

 

Happy Trading!
 

 

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