Thursday September 2, 2004 - 23:43:58 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 3rd September 2004 Price: 1.2615
Resistance: 1.2630 ... 1.2665 ... 1.2695 ... 1.2735
Support....: 1.2615 ... 1.2585 ... 1.2554 ... 1.2530
While 1.2665 holds we are bearish to 1.2490-00
Gains have followed through to 1.2650 and this may have well provided a peak. If not we do not foresee any rally above 1.2665. Thus a more bullish stance would require a break of this resistance but the 1.2690-00 area still looks like providing resistance. Further resistance is at 1.2735.
Any bearish stance today would require 1.2665 to hold and for a move below 1.2585 initially and then the prior 1.2555 low. If seen we would then expect the losses to 1.2485-00 at least but would look for this area to hold initially.
Elliott Wave Comments:
August 25th 2004
We have seen the Fibonacci retracement levels broken quite easily. While this does suggest the chance of the long term uptrend resuming we still keep the bearish daily cycles in mind and we are watching for an alternative corrective pattern from the 1.2857 peak. This would suggest a peak in the 1.2780-1.2810 area that we would label Wave -b- of a possible triangle. This would then imply losses reversing down to 1.2440-80 at least in Wave -c- followed by Waves -d- and -e- to complete the pattern in 2-3 weeks time. We shall continue to assess the wave structure over the coming days.
August 30th 2004
The rally continues and has come very close to the 1.2857 high. We now have to consider two possible scenarios. The first would call the current rally a Wave -b- within a flat correction from 1.2857 and thus implies a peak around 1.2845-85 and would then allow Wave -c- all the way back to 1.2374. This seems slightly deep considering recent strength but we do have 2 weeks of downward daily cycles.
The alternative would consider the 1.2374 low as the completion of Wave B which would have the current rally developing in Wave C. However, this would imply a minimum target of 1.3030 being wave equality of Wave A which does seem a little too far at this point.
Thus we need to play things by ear and look to see how the wave structure develops over the next day or two to judge exactly where we are within the general scenario of a rally into the end of the year.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."