Thursday July 19, 2007 - 04:25:26 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCAD
Resistance: 1.0463 ... 1.0496 ... 1.0526 ... 1.0556
Support: 1.0418 ... 1.0393 ... 1.0366 ... 1.0331
Bias: I suspect we have seen the low and look for 1.0418 support to hold and far gains to 1.0496-1.0526
Daily Bullish: We saw a brief dip that held at 1.0399 and I suspect this may have satisfied the decline. There is a small risk of some consolidation first and to confirm the next leg higher we shall need to see break above 1.0463 which should provide follow-through to 1.0496 at least. Take care here as this could cap. Next resistance is at 1.0526 and then 1.0556.
MT Bullish: I feel there is the chance that we saw the major low at 1.0399 and a break above 1.0496-1.0526 would cause an eventual move back to 1.0657 once again. (July 19th)
Daily Bearish: There appears to be a good chance that we saw the major low at 1.0399. However, given the potential bearishness of the Dollar in general we should remain aware of a break below the 1.0390 level which would open up stronger losses. Watch for a small correction from the 1.0366 level but overall the downside, once through that support should quite quickly move down through 1.0331 and 1.0315 towards 1.0255 at least.
MT Bearish: While we have seen losses I am not yet convinced these will continue without interruption. There is key support at 1.0393 and only breach here would maintain the downside for below parity.
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
Continued losses have been seen back to the area of the 1.0443 low. I note that if we count the 1.0443 low as Wave a and the 1.0611 peak as Wave b then a wave equality target is at 1.0393 which is where a 38.2% expansion of the recovery from 1.0468 to 1.0657. This would imply an expanded flat and an eventual recovery back to 1.0657 again.
Only directly below 1.0390 would suggest follow-through in Wave [c] to 1.0366 minimum (wave equality with Wave [a]) and more likely to at least 1.0186 (161.8% projection) and I suspect lower to below parity.
We should see the 1.0393 target today from where a recovery should be seen in Wave efc that should eventually target 1.0657.
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