Tuesday July 24, 2007 - 05:23:11 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD
Resistance: 1.3831 ... 1.3863 ... 1.3880 ... 1.3912
Support: 1.3810 ... 1.3494 ... 1.3751 ... 1.3723
Bias: Until 1.3863 is broken there is still a risk of a second dip back to 1.3723-51
Daily Bullish: Yesterday didnâ€™t see the direct test of 1.3863 as expected but the downside correction appears to have held at 1.3794 and therefore while a pullback from the 1.3830-40 area is possible I do expect a test of 1.3863 today. However, this should cap and cause a pullback lower. Therefore a stronger bullish stance will require a break above 1.3863 and if seen would trigger gains through to 1.3912-32 at least. Care â€“ only breach extends to 1.3991-1.4016.
MT Bullish: We have seen break above 1.3832 but Iâ€™m not convinced this will translate into direct gains. However, while 1.3723-51 supports look for a move up to 1.3932 and probably 1.4016 and 1.4078. (July 23rd)
Daily Bearish: I still feel we should watch the 1.3863 area closely. I feel this may well cap and cause a move lower again. A break below 1.3810 would imply this occurring earlier and then Iâ€™d look for a move back to 1.3779 and eventually 1.3723-51 which should stall the decline. Only break below sees a larger correction lower.
MT Bearish: With the 1.3832 level capping there is odds on chance we shall see a pullback that I favor stalling at 1.3641-60. There is also deeper support at 1.3602 but only below 1.3562 sees stronger losses. (July 19th)
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The earlier break above 1.3832 doesnâ€™t seem to gel with the start of Wave (v) since we should see Wave (iv) be more complex than the simple Wave (ii). Thus watch out for the possibility of an expanded flat to the 38.2% expansion at 1.3863 and also be aware of an alternative resistance at 1.3858. If this caps then we can expect a move back to Wave efa at 1.3751 and probably a touch lower with a 23.6% retracement in Wave (iv) at 1.3723.
Directly above 1.3863 highlights potential daily targets at 1.3932 (61.8%) and 1.4016 (66.7%) and an equality Wave (C) at 1.4078.
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