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Monday July 30, 2007 - 12:34:12 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 30-July-2007....1155 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.2029/34….…… Caught in a crossfire
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.2060 / 1.2090
S: 1.2000 / 1.1950
USD-CHF was very choppy last week, as each day, it swung into another direction. This week, much of the same is expected, as the pair has been caught in a crossfire, of carry meltdown on one hand (helping CHF gain) and weakening EUR (helping CHF lose). As such, it could be better to not to trade the pair currently.

Currently the USD-CHF is above a very important Support level of 1.2000 and 1.1962, the 2007 Low. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.2060 and then at 1.2090. It would be better to stay form the pair until there is a clear break below 1.1950 on a closing basis.

 
 GBP-USD @ 2.0233/38…………….Resistance at 2.0265-67
-------------------------------------------------
R: 2.0265-67-80 / 2.0300-10
S: 2.0220 / 2.0180
GBP-USD had a sharp fall in the last three days of the last week, which continued earlier today and the pair touched a low of 2.0180. This week, the pair is likely to be volatile as there is a BOE meeting on Thursday, with interest rates unchanged expected. The pair is expected to remain weak atleast in the first part of the week, with 2.0100 likely to be tested. On the upside, the Resistance for the week is at 2.0400.

The pair has had a small move up since hitting lows near 2.0180 earlier today. Currently the immediate Resistance is near 2.0280 and 2.0310. On the downside the Supports are at 2.0220 and then at 2.0180. The bias for the day is neutral. No trades currently.

See the UK Libor and the BOE Chart at
http://www.kshitij.com/utilities/funcharts/ukboe.shtml


 
 AUD-USD @ 0.8484/88………..Sell at current level
----------------------------------
R: 0.8540 / 0.8560
S: 0.8470-63 / 0.8450
AUD-USD had a sharp sell off late last week on back of sharp carry unwinding and the pair fell to a low of 0.8467 earlier today. The pair is expected to remain under pressure this week as well. On the downside, the pair may test 0.8400. On the upside, 0.8650 needs to crossed to re-establish the prior up trend.

The pair tested a high of 0.8549 during the day and fell sharply. Now for today the Support is at 0.8460 and then near 0.8440. On the upside the Resistance is at 0.8520 and then at 0.8540-50. The bias for the day is bearish for the pair and we would like to sell.

Market Trade: (at the time of writing)
Sell AUD 20K at Current level, SL 0.8555, TP 0.8430. As soon as the market trades 0.8455, bring SL down to 0.8530

Happy Trading!
 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

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