Saturday September 4, 2004 - 13:32:45 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: General Outlook for the Four Majors 6th September 2004 With Monday being U.S. Labor Day this commentary will cover trading on both Monday and Tuesday.
Given the longer term bullish view we have for the Dollar into the end of the year, the earlier than expected reversal higher for the Dollar on Friday does bring with it the risk of an immediate resumption of the weekly uptrend. Although we still see potential for the Dollar to consolidate before this larger rally we are aware of the possibility of Dollar cycles having found a base slightly earlier than expected and would not wish to fight a continued rally. However, we shall wait for confirmation of this which would be implied on breaks of 1.1967-86 Euro and 1.2847-57 Swissie.
With Monday beiing a U.S. bank holiday the liklihood is for a subdued range trading day with boudaries between 1.2020-1.2086 Euro and 1.2685-1.2735 Swissie. Moving through to Tuesday we need to watch for the next break. With daily cycles still appearing bearish for the Dollar we tend to consider Friday's burst higher as corrective and as such, while there is no break of 1.2020-40 Euro and 1.2735-55 Swissie, we feel the downside should come under pressure. Breaks of 1.2110 Euro and 1.2650 would imply losses again next week for the Dollar.
The British Pound does look like a slightly different story and there is a good possibility of the fact that the downtrend her has resumed. However, the 1.7730-35 area looks important and does have potential to cause a pullback higher. However, the 1.7840-60 area looks tough to break.
Where we may see a little more movement on Monday is in Dollar-Yen. While the break of 110.50 does appear bullish here too we feel the first move should be a correction to the rally from 108.75 to 110.69. This should see the Dollar drifting lower towards 109.50-70 which should provide good support. Should the Dollar be resuming its weekly uptrend here then a breach of 110.75-00 would appear to have potential to take price right back to the 112.07-46 highs. However, this should stall the rally for a deeper correction.
Have a profitable week.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."