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Friday August 3, 2007 - 04:30:33 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY

 

Please note Pro Commentary will take a break from the 6th – 10th August during the summer lull

 Price:                            119.28

Resistance: 119.36 119.67 120.10 120.53
Support: 118.90 118.60 118.27 118.00

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: Look for 120.10 to cap with range trading above 117.59 and a possible expansion to 116.63

Daily Bullish: Today looks as if we have seen a cap at 119.36 and this should cause a move back to 118.27-32. Thus only directly above 119.36 would pressure the 119.67 and 120.10 resistance levels directly. Next resistance at 120.53.
MT Bullish: The break above 119.15 yesterday means we have met the intermediate low at 117.59 and thus we should now see a period of correction that could extend sideways for a while. 120.10 should provide the peak (max 120.53). It is likely to be a 1-2 week consolidation and we should be prepared for messy moves between 117.59 and 120.10. If there is any earlier dip to 116.63 this may just be a complex correction with a return back to 120.10. Thus only above 120.60-73 would trigger a move back above 122.00.
Daily Bearish: I think we have selling opportunities today with 119.36 looking to be a short term peak. This should lead to losses down to 118.60 and then probably 118.27-32 which should hold. Only below retests 117.59.
MT Bearish: Cycles are still bearish for a further 2-4 weeks and thus while I don’t feel we will see a break lower next week it must be remembered that this is the underlying direction. I suspect we should get a good selling opportunity at 120.10 and while the move may be choppy (watch the negative carry) we should see a move back to 118.20 at least while a retest of the 117.59 low is also possible and would then retest the 120.10 area again. Any break down to 116.63 would be a complex & cause a move up to 120.10 again.

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

3rd August

With the break above 119.15 I have to accept that the 117.59 low was the end of Wave –iii-. Therefore a 50% pullback lies at 120.10 and a 58.6% pullback at 120.53 although I don’t feel this will be tested as it’s too close to the 120.73 Wave –b- high.

Wave a appears to have completed at 119.36 and a 61.8% pullback comes to the 118.27-32 base areas which should hold and cause a Wave c up to the 120.10 target. A three wave move then opens the risk for a complex correction with the risks of a triangle, flat or expanded flat. An expanded flat would stall in the 116.63-75 area approximately and end back at 120.10. A final Wave –v- lower would then have a 76.4% projection around the 115.16 daily Wave efa low.

Ian Copsey

 

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