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Thursday August 9, 2007 - 10:57:49 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Currency Currents

Thursday 9 August 2007        http://www.blackswantrading.com

Key News
• U.S. Stock-Index Futures Fall; Citigroup, Merrill Lynch Drop in Europe U.S. stock-index futures declined after two European banks announced losses in U.S. credit markets, reviving concern that the rout related to subprime mortgages may broaden. – Bloomberg
• China Should Use Reserves to Sway `Silly Senators,' Researcher Xia Says China should consider using its $1.33 trillion currency reserves as a ``bargaining chip,'' after some U.S. senators threatened trade sanctions on Chinese imports unless the yuan appreciates, a government researcher said. – Bloomberg


• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: +4K. Previous: +4K.
9:00a.m. Chain Store Sales.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer. Previous: Unch.


Quotable
“Rock journalism is people who can't write interviewing people who can't talk for people who can't read.”

-Frank Zappa


FX Trading – The Roller Coaster Down Under


Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia boosted its benchmark lending rate to an 11-year high of 6.50%.  And just as the textbooks tell us, when interest rates go up the local currency will appreciate.  That’s exactly what the Aussie did yesterday – it reeled off a nice stretch of gains and pushed above a sideways consolidation range going back to late July.

After yet another jump, Australia’s benchmark interest rate remains the highest among the G7 currencies.  We have no doubt that the fundamental backdrop of solid growth and rising rates will continue to propel Australia’s dollar higher over the longer-term.  But in the more immediate future, the Aussie’s path is not so certain.

[Chart not available in text format]


Yes we saw positive price action after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its rate hike yesterday.  But as quickly as the Aussie snapped off a justified rally, it’s gone ahead and given most of those gains right back this morning (see the last few bars in the 60-minute chart above).

Why’d this happen?  Have a look at the key news I posted at the top of this page:

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Fall; Citigroup, Merrill Lynch Drop in Europe U.S. stock-index futures declined after two European banks announced losses in U.S. credit markets, reviving concern that the rout related to subprime mortgages may broaden. – Bloomberg

Despite an even firmer fundamental backdrop for the Australian dollar, the threat of subprime contagion is moving markets in a big way.  Any hint of losses outside the U.S. at the hand of the credit fiasco is hitting the radar screens like the Goodyear blimp.

The Australian dollar has been a huge recipient of easy money bets (a la borrowing yen in the infamous carry trade) – the same bets that once provided immense liquidity for credit markets but are now being sucked dry.

Fear of a carry trade unwind due to a reduction of risk-heavy investments is the story, and we expect it will be for a while.  That’s going to trump most any of the fundamental strength of any high-yielding currency for some time to come – at least over the shorter-term.

They say fear of loss is a greater motivator than greed of gain.  Perhaps.  Unless of course you’re yen-bullish!

Japanese yen daily … go baby, go!

 


[Chart not available in text format]

 

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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