User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday August 13, 2007 - 11:00:47 GMT
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Research - Economics Weekly:- Economic data to counter credit market fears about growth

Economics Weekly:


Economic data to counter credit market fears about growth


• Financial markets this week will be focused on the wider implications of the turmoil in global credit markets. However, economic data are likely to suggest that this crisis is a correction though it may persist for a while even with emergency funds being provided by central banks. But the question the financial markets will debate is whether the normalisation of lending rates in credit markets will spread and destabilise the real economy – we think not.


• In the UK, economic data are likely to show that inflation is receding or stable and growth is weakening, albeit slowly, in response to the 125 basis point rise in official short term interest rates since August 2006. The question of whether this pace of response is acceptable to the central bank will be seen in the August vote by the MPC on official interest rates. We look for a split vote of 7:2 to keep base rates on hold at 5.75% that month, with the dissenters voting for a hike to 6%.


• US data are likely to be mixed, but we think that the most likely outcome will be to support the Fed view that rate cuts are not yet required, even with the spreading of the crisis in the sub prime market to credit markets globally and perhaps to some banks.


• In the euro zone, the central bank has already signalled that it will raise interest rates in September and it would be a surprise if it did not, even with the crisis in credit markets. The reason is that it is focused on inflation and the wider economy and is providing liquidity to the money markets to address any spillover from credit market woes to other financial markets and so to the wider economy.


Credit conditions are likely to remain the main issue in the financial markets this week, perhaps overshadowing the plethora of economic data that are due to be released in the US, UK and EU area. Nevertheless, the data are important for the evolution of interest rates in the months ahead. If the economic data stay robust, as seems likely in our view, then central banks may not react to current events by cutting official interest rates, on the basis that risks are still contained in credit markets. Moreover, global economic growth remains solid, revised up to over 5% this year recently by the IMF, and employment in the US remains high and rising. Credit market concerns might be eased - though not erased - by the action taken by a number of central banks to provide as much liquidity as required by financial institutions. Whether this will be enough to calm credit market fears is uncertain (though we believe that it will be), but there is a dilemma for central banks between cutting rates and concern about continuing robust economic growth leading to higher price inflation.


As far as US economic data are concerned, we look for the release of consumer and producer price inflation, retail sales, industrial production, trade data and housing market figures to show that the real economy remains robust and that inflation remains a concern though residential housing remains weak. US inflation is expected to show little slowdown in annual terms, with core CPI to remain above 2%. Sales should recover, on no acceleration in gasoline prices and higher employment and rising confidence. High oil prices imply that producer prices will stay elevated, but strong global growth is also supporting manufacturing output growth although the trade deficit will remain wide. All this makes it unlikely that the Fed will cut rates, unless there is clear damage to the real economy, so expectations of a rate cut seem excessive to us.


In Europe, UK economic data are most plentiful, with annual price inflation, Tuesday, expected to fall slightly and earnings growth to remain weak, despite falling unemployment. This should offer some reassurance that UK base rates are close to or at a peak, especially with the current crisis in credit markets. Our view is that the latter may give more time for the UK economy to weaken in response to higher base rates and so prevent a rate rise from occurring. On that point, the release of MPC minutes for the August meeting on Wednesday may show that 2 members voted for a base rate hike to 6%. In the euro zone, advance gdp figures for Q2 will be released and could show that growth was as robust as in Q1. This should support the ECB in its signal to raise rates in September, though widening credit spreads suggest that this might be put on hold. Figures for final inflation for June will also be released but nothing so far suggests that the ECB will not raise rates to 4.25% in September. Norway may raise its interest rate this week, despite credit market conditions.


Trevor Williams, Chief Economist


Economic Research,
Lloyds TSB Corporate
10 Gresham Street,
London EC2V 7AE
0207 626 - 1500


Any documentation, reports, correspondence or other material or information in whatever form be it electronic, textual or otherwise is based on sources believed to be reliable, however neither the Bank nor its directors, officers or employees warrant accuracy, completeness or otherwise, or accept responsibility for any error, omission or other inaccuracy, or for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. The facts and data contained are not, and should under no circumstances be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product, nor are they intended to be a substitute for commercial judgement or professional or legal advice, and you should not act in reliance upon any of the facts and data contained, without first obtaining professional advice relevant to your circumstances. Expressions of opinion may be subject to change without notice. Although warrants and/or derivative instruments can be utilised for the management of investment risk, some of these products are unsuitable for many investors. The facts and data contained are therefore not intended for the use of private customers (as defined by the FSA Handbook) of Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a signatory to the Banking Codes, and represents only the Scottish Widows and Lloyds TSB Marketing Group for life assurance, pension and investment business.



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 9 July 2018
AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105