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Tuesday August 14, 2007 - 04:48:14 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||While 1.2078 (max 1.2123) caps there is still room on the downside|
||The underlying expectation of a rally to 1.2078 developed without the earlier pullback. So far we have seen a peak at 1.2067 and this doesnâ€™t quite look complete. While 1.2015-20 supports I still feel there is risk of a move higher to the 1.2078 target. Preferably Iâ€™d like to see this stall the upside. However, there is minor risk of seeing a mild overshoot â€“ with resistance also around 1.2105-23. Only above here would cause stronger gains. |
||The dip to 1.1814, while unexpected, does seem to fit in better to the LT downside target at 1.1664. Only above 1.2078 & 1.2123 would imply an earlier rally to 1.2218 and 1.2250-60. (13th August)|
||The current decline should stall around 1.2015-20 and cause a test back towards the 1.2078 target. From this additional high or a clean break below 1.2010 I will be looking for the downside to begin developing again. There is minor support around 1.1963 which could cause a temporary pullback but overall we should then see the decline progress towards 1.1850 and then to around the 1.1814 low. |
||The losses to 1.1814 seems to fit in with a move to the daily downside target at 1.1664. However, I feel a move to the 1.2078 area should be seen to launch the final move lower. (13th August)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The move down to 1.1814, while not retaining particularly good Fibonacci relationships does seem to be a more likely Wave (iii) low and with Wave (ii) being brief and shallow this would imply a larger and longer Wave (iv). A 50% retracement is at 1.2078 and 58.6% at 1.2123.
As opposed to the cleaner ABC pattern this appears to have developed directly and I still feel a test of 1.2078 should be seen.
This would complete Wave (iv) and then provide a decline in Wave (a) of Wave (v) back to the area of the 1.1814 low and eventually towards the 1.1664 daily extension in Wave â€“c- at 1.1664.
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