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Monday August 20, 2007 - 12:29:00 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 20-Aug-2007....1124 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------


USD-CHF @ 1.2084/89….…Sell a rally
--------------------------------
R: 1.2070 / 1.2120 / 1.2150
S: 1.2043-40 / 1.2000
USD-CHF was very choppy last week and it was up for three days of the week and down on the last two, on back of a fall in the EUR-CHF. Now this week again USD-CHF likely to be guided by how the EUR-CHF behaves.  EUR-CHF had broken its 200-Day MA of 1.6292 on last Thursday and the cross is likely to stay under pressure while it trades below 1.6394. This is likely to keep the USD-CHF pressured to the downside as well, below its own 200-MA of 1.2225. On the downside the Support for USD-CHF in the week is at 1.2000 and then at 1.1880.

For today the immediate Support 1.2043-40 the 200-MA on the 4-Hourly. A break below that could trigger a fall towards 1.2000. On the upside the Resistances for the day is at 1.2000 and 1.2143, the statistically projected Max High for the day, a rally towards which could be used to sell with a stop above 1.2170. The bias for the day is bearish.


GBP-USD @ 1.9844/48………Bullish Biased
----------------------------------------------
R: 1.9860 / 1.9900 / 1.9940
S: 1.9800-9780 / 1.9740
GBP-USD has had a sharp fall in the last week and the pair tested a low of 1.9652, below its 200-MA on the daily of 1.9757. What is noticeable is that the pair has held its 200-MA on a daily close basis and now the pair needs to break below 1.9650 – 20 on a sustained basis to trigger a case of a bigger selloff. Note that 1.9685 comes on a trendline on the weekly joining the lows of 1.8090 (June-06) and 1.8522 (Oct-06), which again indicates Support below 1.9700 and above 1.9600.

While above 1.9620, buying on dips for longer term could be seen, however the pair is likely to be volatile. The pair needs to move above 2.0000 to display convincing bullishness.

Today the pair has had a nice rally intraday and is currently trading near the statistically projected Max Low for the day of 1.9904 (already tested once). Above that the Resistance is at 1.9940-50. On the downside the Support is at 1.9850 and 1.9800. The bias for the pair is bullish and buying on dips for the week is the preferred option. 


AUD-USD @ 0.8024/28………..Support at 0.8000
-----------------------------------------------
R: 0.8060 / 0.8080
S: 0.8000 / 0.7960
AUD-USD had a very sharp fall in the last week and the pair hit a low of 0.7677, in what was the largest weekly fall in the pair in the last 10 years. In the process of the sell off the pair broke below its important level of 0.8000 and the 200-MA of 0.8124, the levels, which were important. Now the pair is likely to face Resistances at those levels in the subsequent weeks. A daily close above 0.8000 could open up a rally towards 0.8124.

On the downside the Support is coming in at 0.7800 and 0.7677, near the prior 2007 Low, which was also seen back in March-07. Note 0.7677 also comes on a trendline on the weekly joining the lows of 0.4822 (Sep-2001) and 0.7111 (Apr-2006). An extreme level for the week could be the 200-MA on the weekly of 0.7611. The pair is likely to be choppy and volatile this week within 0.8124 and 0.7680.

The pair has moved above 0.8000 intraday and that is currently sustaining. Now while above that, there are chances of a move towards 0.8124, the 200-MA. A break below 0.8000 could again turn the immediate bias to be bearish.

 

Happy Trading!
 

 

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