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Tuesday August 21, 2007 - 13:11:30 GMT
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GVI Weekly Month Ahead Forex Outlook

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs

Forex Currency Pairs

The pros at GVI prepare forex currency market reports weekly. Reports focus on the dollar and major currency pairs. Forex forecast services are a product of GVI. Check out our weekly forecast of key forex currency pairs at this location.

August 21, 2007

Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs

The credit crisis just will not fade away. The sub-prime excesses were years in the making and will not be unwound in a day, the problem is that they extend like a cancer throughout the global financial system and have been popping up in hedge funds, money market funds and the European banking system. The German banking system in general has been looking quite vulnerable. Central banks, especially the ECB, have been on the front line trying to keep banking systems afloat. U.S. commercial banks appear to have had manageable exposures to these problems. A key barometer of worry in the interbank markets has been the substantial premium demanded on libor deposits. Also yields on short-term U.S. Treasury bills have tumbled as investors have sought out a safe haven for their cash. The Fed has been frustratingly slow to respond to this crisis and has been accused by many as lacking a market sense. On the other hand, the central bank lacks the tools needed to directly address this crisis because it is not the U.S. commercial banks at risk. As for forex markets, traders have moved into a flight to safety mode. They aren?t reacting much to economic and have a propensity to unwind carry trades as each new piece of bad credit news is released.

The Fed discount rate cut was a useful gesture to the markets but was not enough. A pre-emptive Fed rate cut has been called for from the start, and until the central bank moves, inaction by the Fed will keep Chairman Bernanke in the center of this crisis. The current state of affairs suggests that the improved USD tone might persist longer that earlier believed. Once credit concerns start to wane, the risk is that negative USD sentiment will resurface again in anticipation of future Fed policy ease and as flight to safety demand ebbs.

Major Currency Pairs - Currency Forecasts- Monthly Perspective

foreign currency pairs

The European economy, led by Germany, is moving into a slower and more sustainable expansionary phase. All eyes now are on the ECB, which earlier signaled a September interest rate hike. With the sub-prime credit scare dominating the financial markets, especially some key German banks, many wonder if this central bank will tighten again this year. The EUR continues to be bounced around by flows in and out of JPY carry trades.

forex forecast services Tokyo had worried that markets were too complacent with their JPY carry trades. This imbalance has been corrected by massive swings in the JPY crosses against key carry trade currencies. The BOJ has sent a signal that it will not be hiking interest rates this week. Presumably the September decision will be determined by future data and market conditions.

major currency pairs On July 5, the Bank raised its repo target by +25bps to 5.75%. Additional price data will be needed to justify another rate hike in 3Q07. There has been rumors that some U.K. financial institutions have needing funding assistance. This has been a weight on the GBP.

forex currency market reports The Swiss National Bank had been unhappy with the relative weakness of the CHF against the EUR. Additional quarterly hikes are in the pipeline. The next probable +25bp tightening set for September 13 could be postponed until December or beyond.

currency exchange forecast The Australian economy has been improving. A key focus for the RBA remains inflation, employment and commodity demand. After an August 8 rate hike is likely, additional moves may be in the pipeline. The Aussie dollar has been subject to wild swings due to carry trade unwinds.

us currency The Canadian economy is on an uneven recovery path. The CAD is also underpinned by M&A flows and commodity prices. On May 29, the Bank of Canada hiked rates at its July 10 policy meeting. Future rate hikes will be determined by the state of the financial markets as much as by the economy.

John M. Bland is a co-founder and partner of Prior to, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor?s degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

Major Currency Pairs - Currency Forecasts- Monthly Perspective

Forex Currency Market Reports

This currency forecast report of major currency pairs vs. the us currency, including gbp to usd, euro to usd, yen to usd and cad to usd is presented weekly. This is a free feature of currency exchange forecasts. Monthly forex forecast services are also available from the pros at GVI.

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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