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Wednesday September 8, 2004 - 12:39:59 GMT
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Global Markets Anticipator: Driving Market Forces and USDJPY&EURUSD

The following research was sent to clients last night:

DRIVING MARKET FORCES

Stocks continue to push higher on excellent market breadth. If equities turn lower, it will come without the normal advanced warning of a divergence from the world of the A/D line. The only technical negative right now is that the chart pattern off the low really does not appear to be developing in a five wave pattern. The only other concerns come from the fact that volume has been very low (possibly due to seasonal factors) and that day counts allow for a reversal early next week. I am sticking to my negative stance, as channel resistance sits a couple percent away and even if the larger trend is up, that channel should allow for a pretty good-sized pull back.

Stocks are the only market that has been acting substantially different from my forecasts. USDJPY continues to have troubles rallying, although I do see potential for a minor rally short-term. The strength is in the yen, as the dollar remains strong against all other crosses, except for CAD. I continue to favor a small bounce in USDJPY followed by sharp losses. EURUSD may be nesting for a powerful drop, but is more likely in an a-b-c rally with wave-c now underway. Target area is the low/mid-1.22s with the bigger picture pointing to the 1.16s or lower. Very long term is very bearish for the USD, with 1.35-1.50 or higher possible in the next couple of years.

The bond market may have turned. The 10Y could possibly make a small new high, but 5s and Eurodollar futures are in big trouble, at least for the next couple of months. Sell rallies there. Longer term does permit yet another rally (as stocks tumble), but for now, the game is to sell.

I will update other markets in my regular weekly piece. Cable is nearing our targets and I have tightened stops some there. We missed our CHF short on a timing basis as I required 1.2850 to be attained on Monday last week and it got there on Tuesday. The Nikkei as it is a stock market has rallied more than forecast. However, gains are still not impulsive in pattern. Bunds and Euribor have more immediate-term up side potential than down side, but the larger swing is negative and rallies should be sold.


USDJPY

Expectations:
Immediate-term (for daytraders) Positive
Swing Positive
Medium-term Neutral
Long-term Negative

Day traders: Buy at 109.10, stop 108.80, target 109.70

Swing traders: Flat.

Medium-term traders: Sell at 111.20, stop 112.00, target 109.75

Long-term traders: Short at 111.00, stop 114.00, target 105.00

Technical summary: See potential for small new low overnight or early US today. From there, watch for final rally, where I will (once again) attempt to short this cross. Bigger picture risks new lows! I am not buying for swing higher because I see larger risk as down and rather trade bullish positions on intraday basis instead.

EURUSD

Expectations:
Immediate-term (for daytraders) Positive
Swing Positive
Medium-term Negative
Long-term Neutral

Day traders: Buy at 1.2080, stop 1.2035, target 1.2150.

Swing traders: Long at 1.2050, closed at 1.22 target. Sell at 1.2210, stop 1.2260, target 1.2050.

Medium-term traders: Flat

Long-term traders: Short at 1.2200, stop 1.2700, target 1.1700 and probably lower.

Technical summary: Should complete wave-c up here and then resume lower, most likely to well below 1.17. I might extend long-term targets if prices accelerate down.

KEY LEVELS:

USD/JPY (Spot)
Key Levels Significance
111.19 Approximate triangle resistance
110.71 High of move so far, 3-September
110.23 7-Sep high
109.86 US session high on 7-Sep
109.60 Old triangle support, now resistance
109.37 Close
109.25 Low on 7-September
109.12 3-Sep low
108.77 Recent low, 31-August
108.69 200-day moving average
108.11 Mid-July low

EUR/USD (Spot)
Key Levels Significance
1.2276 Love of first minor leg down off high, 20-August
1.2244 Resistance, early NY trading, 23-August (1.2235=62% to August
high)
1.2221 High on 31-August
1.2166 Long-term up trend line, now acts as resistance
1.2111 High on 7-September
1.2104 Close
1.2056 Low on 7-September
1.2042 Low on 3-September (payroll day)
1.1970 August low
1.1926 76.4% retracement to April low
1.1760 April low

 

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