Friday August 24, 2007 - 03:58:35 GMT
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Daily Analysis for AUDUSD
||Only above 0.8238 extends the upside towards 0.8314 which should cause a correction|
||The upside indeed extended, reaching the 0.8216 resistance where we have seen a correction. I still suspect a much higher target around 0.8270 & 0.8316 but we need to break above the 0.8238 resistance first. While this holds there is still risk of a pullback. Thus take care at the 0.8238 resistance and only follow-through above there but look to take profits around 0.8300. Any reversal from 0.8238 can be bought around 0.8111-30.|
||The upside has begun to develop as suggested and there should be further to go. While the upside has direct risk we should see the 0.8110-30 area support. Next targets at 0.8314, 0.8373 & 0.8533-88. (24th August)|
||For the moment while the momentum remains positive we need be cautious about the downside. However, do watch the 0.8238 resistance and if this caps a good decline could well develop. A move back below 0.8200-10 will assist and then 0.8180 which should then seal a return to the 0.8129 low and possibly as far as 0.8110. However, that should hold for a reversal back higher. |
||I remain bullish but we can now raise the reversal area to the 0.8100-10 area below which we could see a deeper consolidation. (24th August)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I suspect we are seeing wave (c) develop higher and that this morningâ€™s 0.8158 high may well be Wave a of Wave â€“iii- of Wave (c). Thus be aware of a 50% pullback to around 0.8080-95 but then continuation of the move to the 176.4% projection in Wave â€“iii- at 0.8216 and quite possibly closer to the 223.6%-261.8% projection at 0.8270-0.8314.
Overall I am looking for a major daily triangle to develop which should see a peak in Wave ^b at the 76.4% retracement at 0.8588 which should occur in a series of ABC moves.
I feel we have seen a possible end to minor Wave ii of Wave (c). However, the current rally must move above a 38.2% expansion of the pullback from 0.8197 else we could see a move back to 0.8110-29 first.
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