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Thursday September 9, 2004 - 15:50:07 GMT
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GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary Thursday, September 09, 2004


Daily Commentary By Cornelius Luca, forex analyst, Global Forex Trading
(source: http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=992004)

The dollar slumped sharply on Wednesday, reversing early gains, after Fed Chairman Greenspan warned that the economic recovery faces only some traction and after he criticized the size of the budge deficit. The slide pretty much erased the gains made on Friday on the US employment data. However, the sell-off was overdone, so the dollar should see sideways trading on Thursday.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar made a monster recovery from a 10-day low of 1.2024 and is now challenging the resistance at 1.2219.

A break above this level would signal a rally to a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2273. A further upmove to 1.2342 is unlikely on the day.

Immediate support comes at 1.2156. If the decline unexpectedly resumes today, then look for a test at 1.2100. Below this area, the euro/dollar has support at 1.2050 and 1.2024. A break lower would still target 1.1986.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen gave saw very volatile trading on Wednesday and remains under selling pressure.

Key support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65. A break below 108.65 would target another 50-point pivot at 107.95, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.

Above 109.65, the pair still has resistance at 110.10, 110.68 and then at 111.00 from a Fibonacci retracement level. Further resistance remains at 111.60 from the 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar recovered sharply on Wednesday but failed to wipe out all of its losses made on Friday.

Any further recovery will face resistance first at 1.8000 and then at 1.8064. An unexpected break higher would then challenge 1.8150.

If the recovery fizzles, sterling/dollar should re-test the 1.7800 area and a break lower should encourage a slide to 1.7706. Distant support remains at 1.7585.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc on Wednesday collapsed from a high of 1.2789 to 1.2594.

If the onslaught continues today as well, even at a reduced pace, look for immediate support at 1.2557. A break below this level would signal a test of the 1.2466 Fibonacci retracement level.

The pair has resistance at 1.2650 and then at 1.2680. A break higher would signal a further upmove to 1.2789. Dollar/Swiss franc would then still face tough resistance at 1.2850.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


 

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