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Tuesday May 11, 2004 - 12:56:50 GMT -

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Dollar/Yen stalls at Fibo resistance

Daily Technical Forex Report 05-11-2004

USD/JPY stalls at Fibo resistance
GBP/USD follow through on bearish engulfing

Technical Outlook

A shooting star on the weekly continues to favor more downside action in the EURUSD. A break below support at 1.1845-60 (the 50% fibo of the Sept-Feb bull wave and the 76% fibo of the 4/26-5/5 rally) would expose the pair for a test of more meaningful support at the bottom of the 2 year bull channel / Mar-26 low and lower Bollinger at 1.1760. Reaction there is key in determining whether bears will get the opportunity to make a run for 1.1590, the 61.8% fibo of the Sept-February bull wave. The only opportunities that bulls may find is to bet that 1.1760 holds or to look for a short-term move above the latest 1.19 corrective high. However, profits will need to be taken quickly as immediate moving average resistance around 1.1950 will make any further rallies particularly difficult. A break back above the Mar 5th high and pivot at 1.2180 would be needed to resume the uptrend. USDJPY extended its rally before stalling at the 61.8% fibo of the Aug 1 to April 2 sell off at 114.18. Extremely overbought readings on several weekly oscillators and a bearish divergence on the daily slow stochastics will give bears a compelling reason to sell for a test of support at 111, the 10-day EMA / April-29 high/ former resistance. However, as long as Friday's low of 109.70 holds, bullish sentiment still dominates. Longs are still waiting for the opportunity to take a stab at the May 3rd low and former range support turned resistance at 115. Monday's follow through of Friday's bearish engulfing pattern in the GBPUSD confirms the head & shoulders reversal pattern. The break of the 38.2% fib of the Sept-Feb bull wave indicates that bears remain in control. Aggressive bulls may look to the May 4th low at 1.7700 to enter, but patience may be rewarded to bulls who wait for key support at 1.7570/80, the April 29 low and 200-day EMA. Bears will continue to exploit moving average resistance at 1.7830/50. The pullback in USDCHF may give bulls the opportunity to reinitiate long positions, however a break below the 10-day SMA at 1.2930 will risk a deeper corrective setback towards the May 6 high and 50-day SMA support at 1.2865. A break above the April 27-29 highs at 1.31 exposes the pair for a possible return to the year to date high at 1.3230.


Comment from 04/16
On 04/01 AUDCAD had a high at 1.0100 before a quick retracement to the 9863 low, 237pts lower. The outlook is still bullish and a couple of opportunities are present for the bulls. 9750/80 will attract aggressive dip buyers thanks to the LT trend R which is now S, Low BB, ST range S and 61.8% Fibo from the 96 - 01 bear wave. Below, more conservative players will concentrate in the 9500/30 area to exploit the 200 SMA and 50% fibo from the Aug 02 - Mar 04 bull wave. A sustained break below would open the door to 9300 and would turn the outlook bearish. Higher, the only serious entry for the bears will be 1.0400/30 the 78.6% fibo from the Mar bear wave. It is important to note also that a confirmed breakout above would open the way to 1.11/1.12.

On 04/29 AUDCAD had a low at 9783 (slightly above our 9750/80 area) before a rally the 1.0090 High, 307pts higher. The overall situation is still positive but Aussie's failure to reach new highs gives real weight to the bears' case. Most of them are short from the 9800 second break and bears are now waiting for the 9700/9800 area to crack. They will then add on bounces into the area. Bulls do not have the upper hand but they could exploit the 9500/50 area thanks to the LT Trend S and 61.8% Fibo from the Sep - Feb bull wave in a breakdown scenario (perfect to catch the typical breakout/retracement). If 9500 is cleared 9270/9310 would then be the next stop (50% Fibo from the 97 01 bear wave). Higher bears will also play the 1.0100/1.0140 area thanks to the High BB and 23.6% Fibo from the Sep - Feb bull wave. Finally the more conservative bearish crowd will also watch the 1.0300/50 area thanks to the 76.4% Fibo from the Feb - Mar bear wave.


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