Thursday September 6, 2007 - 04:10:42 GMT
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Daily Analysis for GBPUSD
||Cautiously I feel a cap has been seen but we need a break below 2.0046-58 to confirm|
||We have seen a break above the 2.0194-00 resistance but a high at 2.0224 and this is around the prior trend support level. I feel there is a good chance of a high having been seen therefore. However, there is support at 2.0146-58 and while this holds there is still a small chance we could see a second rally back above 2.0224-32 and to the 2.0268 area which also provides good resistance. Next resistance is at 2.0317. |
||I feel the recovery stopped short of the ideal 2.0268 target and the downside should now develop. Thus only above 2.0232-68 would maintain an upside momentum for 2.0317 and max 2.0415. (5th September)|
||Although the move higher was deeper than expected it does seem to have held below the prior support line thought there isnâ€™t too much evidence from momentum. Thus Iâ€™d prefer to be slightly cautious here and only on a break of the 2.0146-58 would it suggest that further losses will be seen directly. If seen then look for the decline to extend to 2.0091 and then around the 2.0041 low which should cause a small correction. Further support is then found at 1.9960 and 1.9915-41.|
||With the trend support broken we should see losses all the way back to the 1.9621-49 area initially from where a pullback is expected ahead of further losses. (5th September)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
It seems as if the Wave (x) stalled at 2.0232 and thus we should be seeing the start of a new Wave (a) lower which is likely to reach the 1.9621-49 area. Within this we appear to have seen Wave â€“i- at 2.0072 and I look for Wave â€“ii- to end between the 61.8% and 76.4% retracements at 2.0171-94 which should also retest the prior support line.
Once we have established the peak in Wave â€“ii- then we can generate a target in Wave â€“iii- but I suspect this will be at a minimum around 1.9868.
The pullback was almost 100% but should have completed now but to be safe look for a break of a 2.0146-58 being the area of a minor Wave iv if indeed we are still in a wave higher.
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