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Friday September 10, 2004 - 10:41:29 GMT
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US OPEN MARKET POINTS 09-10-04

US OPEN MARKET POINTS 09-10-04
Published By: Boris Schlossberg, Fundamental Analyst

Hiding in the Crosses

Much to the consternation of the yen bulls who were hoping for an uptick after Monday’s positive CAPEX data. Japanese Q2 final GDP was revised downward today to 0.3% (1.3% y/y). It’s becoming clear that US which had been world’s strongest consumer in the first half of 2004 has curtailed its demand starting sometime in July causing an economic stall amongst the G-7. In our September 1 piece we noted the nascent signs of this global slowdown arguing that the carry trade which has long been given up for dead by the market may come back in vogue once players realize that future growth will be meager making income the primary component of investment returns. Looking at the recent price action of the carry crosses such as AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY we notice that they have declined slightly since the time of our note but have essentially arrested their rate of descent and are basing at present levels. Perhaps we are not the only ones who see value there.

The US Trade Balance due today at 12:30 GMT is particularly hard to handicap this month. The market expects a small improvement to –51.5 Billion from last month’s record –55.8 Billion mainly on the strength of capital goods exports most notably the large Boeing order. However, with the price of oil averaging $42/bbl in July vs. $38/bbl in June the final number could quite plausibly surprise to the downside. Regardless of the actual number, the brutal realization of the negative effects of such large deficits on the dollar may be finally dawning on the market, with San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen, stating yesterday that USD must depreciate in order to bring the Trade Deficit under control. Perversely enough, in the near term, the dollar could rally should the Trade Balance number print below –$51Bn. The euro having gained 220 points in the last 2 days, looks ripe for some profit taking which is why some traders looking to speculate on the number will consider shorting the EUR/GBP cross as one possible way to position for the day.

FX Spot Overnight
- EUR takes out 2250 on option orders then trades back to 2200
- JPY loses 110 handle off bad GDP data
- GBP peeks through 7900 in recovery mode
- CHF inverse shadows EUR/USD through 2800

Upcoming Events
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD Unemployment Rate (August) Expected at 7.20%, Previous 7.20%
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD Net change in employment (August) Expected at 20K, Previous 8.7K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) CAD International Merchandise Trade (July) Expected at C$7.5, Previous C$8.6

12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD PPI (m/m) (August) Expected at 0.2%, Previous 0.1%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD PPI (y/y) (August) Expected at 3.6%, Previous 4.0%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD PPI x-food energy (y/y) (August) Expected at 1.8%, Previous 1.7%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Trade Balance (July) Expected at -$51.5B, Previous -$55.8B

 

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