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Friday September 10, 2004 - 10:41:29 GMT
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US OPEN MARKET POINTS 09-10-04

US OPEN MARKET POINTS 09-10-04
Published By: Boris Schlossberg, Fundamental Analyst

Hiding in the Crosses

Much to the consternation of the yen bulls who were hoping for an uptick after Monday’s positive CAPEX data. Japanese Q2 final GDP was revised downward today to 0.3% (1.3% y/y). It’s becoming clear that US which had been world’s strongest consumer in the first half of 2004 has curtailed its demand starting sometime in July causing an economic stall amongst the G-7. In our September 1 piece we noted the nascent signs of this global slowdown arguing that the carry trade which has long been given up for dead by the market may come back in vogue once players realize that future growth will be meager making income the primary component of investment returns. Looking at the recent price action of the carry crosses such as AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY we notice that they have declined slightly since the time of our note but have essentially arrested their rate of descent and are basing at present levels. Perhaps we are not the only ones who see value there.

The US Trade Balance due today at 12:30 GMT is particularly hard to handicap this month. The market expects a small improvement to –51.5 Billion from last month’s record –55.8 Billion mainly on the strength of capital goods exports most notably the large Boeing order. However, with the price of oil averaging $42/bbl in July vs. $38/bbl in June the final number could quite plausibly surprise to the downside. Regardless of the actual number, the brutal realization of the negative effects of such large deficits on the dollar may be finally dawning on the market, with San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen, stating yesterday that USD must depreciate in order to bring the Trade Deficit under control. Perversely enough, in the near term, the dollar could rally should the Trade Balance number print below –$51Bn. The euro having gained 220 points in the last 2 days, looks ripe for some profit taking which is why some traders looking to speculate on the number will consider shorting the EUR/GBP cross as one possible way to position for the day.

FX Spot Overnight
- EUR takes out 2250 on option orders then trades back to 2200
- JPY loses 110 handle off bad GDP data
- GBP peeks through 7900 in recovery mode
- CHF inverse shadows EUR/USD through 2800

Upcoming Events
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD Unemployment Rate (August) Expected at 7.20%, Previous 7.20%
11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) CAD Net change in employment (August) Expected at 20K, Previous 8.7K
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) CAD International Merchandise Trade (July) Expected at C$7.5, Previous C$8.6

12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD PPI (m/m) (August) Expected at 0.2%, Previous 0.1%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD PPI (y/y) (August) Expected at 3.6%, Previous 4.0%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD PPI x-food energy (y/y) (August) Expected at 1.8%, Previous 1.7%
12:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Trade Balance (July) Expected at -$51.5B, Previous -$55.8B

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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