User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday September 10, 2007 - 21:46:55 GMT
Global-View - www.global-view.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

GVI: Month Ahead Forex Outlook

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs


Forex Currency Pairs

The pros at GVI prepare forex currency market reports weekly. Reports focus on the dollar and major currency pairs. Forex forecast services are a product of GVI. Check out our weekly forecast of key forex currency pairs at this location.




September 11, 2007

Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs


The credit issues in the inter-bank market are likely to persist for the balance of the calendar year or the rest of the fiscal year for many large institutions. In most cases, banks will want to put their losses behind them before their new fiscal years begin. In the meantime, all will be looking to make a full and complete assessment of their sub-prime exposure and segregate it on their balance sheets as swiftly as possible. Odds are that many commercial banks will be under instructions to shrink their footings and thus keep their trading activities on a reduced scale. This suggests that for the balance of the year that markets could remain thin and potentially volatile. Credit premiums will abate as soon as the markets can become more comfortable with the scale of credit risk in the system. Until then, premiums will remain high and the volume of all types of inter-market trading activity, including forex, will be constrained.

It is notable that the effective Fed funds rate was just about at 5.00% for the month of August and below 5.00% so far in September. Thus a ?25bp rate cut at the September 18 FOMC would only confirm the level at where funds already have been trading for the past six weeks. Compare the 5.00% or so Fed funds rate to the 5.80% cost of one-month libor and the scale of the credit premium can be seen. This has amounted to a TIGHTENING of monetary policy just as central banks have been attempting to grease the wheels of the system. This credit tightening has come just as the U.S. economy has begun to slow. This is bad news for the USD.

Other than in the U.S., policy decisions by most key central banks have been put on hold while the financial markets work their way through the current credit crisis. That suggests at some point when conditions start to normalize again that some catch up policy decisions will have to be taken. The ECB and U.K. are likely to keep policy on hold decision Thursday, although both banks have kept all options open. This current period of market uncertainty has tended to favor the USD. Presumably, when markets start to normalize again, the USD should fall.


UNITED STATES

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES


FEDERAL RESERVE Policy Objective: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

ezcpi

The chart above shows year/year headline andcore PCE for the U.S. relative to its its reported "comfort zone for this key price index. 


s-t rates

The above monthly U.S. employment chart is included because its the most closely followed data release each month, and because one of the objectives of the Fed is to maximize employment.


s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Fed funds target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.S. interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the U.S. Fed Funds rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

Major Currency Pairs - Currency Forecasts- Monthly Perspective

foreign currency pairs

The European economy, led by Germany, is still in an expansionary phase. Concern that the economy might be slowing seems not to be shared by the ECB, who on August 2 signaled a September 8 interest rate hike. Since then the ECB reversed that signal and has put future policy on hold. The EUR would stand to benefit from a return to normalcy in the financial markets.


EUROZONE

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES


ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

ezcpi

The chart above shows year/year HICP (Harmonized CPI) for the Eurozone relatrive to its "below 2%" target level. 


s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current ECB  "refi" rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Eurozone interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the ECB refi rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

forex forecast services The Bank of Japan would have loved to have a normalization of interest rates and a normalization of monetary policy. Nevertheless, the economy simply has not cooperated. The low level of inflation has been a concern and now the economy has started to slow. A return to JPY carry trades would be an indicator that financial markets have resumed business as usual.



JAPAN

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES


BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."

ezcpi

The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index. 


s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

major currency pairs The U.K. economy is seeing some price pressures. The Bank of England raised its repo target by +25bps to 5.75% on July 5. Future rate hikes are on hold with the British financial system at risk to the sub-prime slowdown.


UNITED KINGDOM

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES


BANK OF ENGLAND Policy Objective: The Bank's monetary policy objective is to deliver price stability, low inflation, and, subject to that, to support the Government's economic objectives including those for growth and employment. Price stability is defined by the Government's inflation target of 2%.

ezcpi

The chart above shows year/year CPI for the U.K. relative to its 2% target for this key price index. 


s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Repo Rate  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.K. interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the U.K. repo rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

forex currency market reports The Swiss National Bank has been unhappy with the relative weakness of the CHF against the EUR. Additional quarterly hikes are likely on hold for the rest of the year.



SWITZERLAND

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES


SWISS NATIONAL BANK Policy Objective: The National Bank equates price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index (CPI) of less than 2% per annum. In so doing, it takes account of the fact that not every price movement is necessarily inflationary. Furthermore, it believes that inflation cannot be measured accurately. Measurement problems arise, for example, when the quality of goods and services improves. Such changes are not properly accounted for in the CPI; as a result, inflation, as measured by the CPI, will be slightly overstated.

ezcpi

The chart above shows year/year CPI and the Swiss goal of less than 2% for this price index. 


s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current three-month Euro-Swiss target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Swiss interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the Swiss three-month Euro-swiss rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

currency exchange forecast The Australian economy has been improving. A key focus for the RBA remains inflation, employment and commodity demand. The state of the financial markets precludes additional rate hikes.


AUSTRALIA

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES

RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA Policy Objective: The policy objective is a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Monetary policy aims to achieve this over the medium term and, subject to that, to encourage the strong and sustainable growth in the economy. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money. In the long run, this is the principal way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.

cacpi

The chart above shows year/year and the CPI target of 2% to 3% for this price index. 


s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month bank bill rate, the current Cash Rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Australian interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the Australian overnight rate target, three month bank bills, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

us currency The CAD is underpinned by M&A flows, a steady economy and commodity prices. The Bank of Canada hiked rates at its July 10 policy meeting. Policy is now on hold while the state of the U.S. economy is scrutinized.


CANADA

SUMMARY
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
EUROZONE
JAPAN
SWITZERLAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES


BANK OF CANADA Policy Objective: The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2 per cent target, the midpoint of the 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control target range. This target is expressed in terms of total CPI inflation, but the Bank uses a measure of core inflation as an operational guide. Core inflation provides a better measure of the underlying trend of inflation and tends to be a better predictor of future changes in the total CPI.

cacpi

The chart above shows year/year CPI-X (core CPI) and the target of 2% for this price index. 


s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month Banker Acceptance rate, the current BOC overnight rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Canadian interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the Canadian overnight rate target, three month Bankers Acceptance, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

John M. Bland is a co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor?s degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105