Wednesday September 12, 2007 - 03:47:04 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY
||Care â€“ watch support at 113.45-80 and resistance at 114.63 and 115.17|
||Gains seen as preferred which stalled perfectly at the 114.38 resistance. I note that momentum still looks firm with no obvious reversal signals. Therefore while there is risk of a correction to 113.80-00 â€“ and may be 113.45-50 the implication is that we should see further gains. A bounce from 113.80-00 would target 114.63 and take care as this could cap. A bounce from 113.45-50 (max 113.22) would trigger gains back to 114.38 again but stall for a while before going higher. Next resistance is at 115.70.|
||I still see cycles as bullishâ€¦ However, to be more confident in the timing accuracy Iâ€™d like to see a recovery above 114.12 and 115.00 to take us back to the 116.60-117.12 area again. (10th September)|
||Having reached the 114.38 resistance we should be on alert for a move lower. At this point I feel it may be brief. There is support at 113.80-00 and this should be watched first for signs of a reversal higher. If this breaks then a deeper pullback is possible to 113.45-50 and max 113.22-26 but then still retain a MT bullish structure. Thus a stronger bearish stance is going to need a break below 113.20 in which case we should see a move back towards the 112.58 low. |
||Loss of 113.32 has surprised but I still want to be cautious about strong losses. There is support at 112.06-30 â€“ below there targets 111.29-57 â€“ if this breaks then 108.75-109.36 is implied. (10th September) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
While it is difficult to fit in the labeling on the chart I thought I counted a third ABC pattern lower and if so this has completed a Triple-Three and risks a rally back higher in Wave (a) of Wave (iii).
Best also to keep in mind the counter view, which if by any chance the 117.12 high was actually a Wave (iv) then a 61.8% projection is at 109.36 and a 66.7% projection is at 108.75. This would of course require a Wave (a) down to around 111.57 followed by a correction in Wave (b) before declining to target.
Within this counter view we would need a break above the 50% retracement at 114.85 to lower the chances of this pattern developing.
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