Wednesday September 12, 2007 - 12:07:58 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Monthly Forex Poll Results
In the September monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has deteriorated. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3880 from 1.3853 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (September 10 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3806.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was about steady in the EUR/USD at 56 from 51 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast deteriorated to 112.56 from 116.40 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 113.55. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was less USD bearish. It was 45 after 33
Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $75.18 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $75.56 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked how many 25bp rate cuts they expect from the Fed before yearend. 10% said none or one, 12% saw two, 66% expected three, while 12% saw four 25 bp cuts..
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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