Thursday September 13, 2007 - 03:49:07 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||Care here â€“ I suspect a pullback higher but stalling around 1.1925|
||Equal frustration has been seen with any attempt higher keep being beaten back to new lows, but still above the 1.1814 low. There is a strong bullish divergence in the 4-hour chart but we really need a clean break above 1.1925 and preferably the 1.1960-92 pivot area to confirm these. Right now I am reasonably comfortable with a move back to 1.1898-1.1925 but have doubts about seeing much further. Thus only above 1.1925 would test the 1.1960-92 resistance but this should prompt a pullback. |
||I still see bullish cycles but the sharp decline concerns. We now require a break back above 1.1960-90 to trigger direct gains. Until then there is risk down to 1.1735-40 where a base should be seen. (13th September)|
||Price structure is rather strange here but I feel the move to 1.1817 yesterday looks more like a small complex correction rather than a base. However, this would imply gains up to 1.1894 and then the 1.1925 area. It is around here that we should watch for signs of a further decline. Initially it should bounce once again from the 1.1814-17 area but following that the risk is for 1.1735-41 which I feel will hold. |
||There appears to be stronger evidence of the decline reaching 1.1735-41. I prefer a scenario calling for this to hold. Only below extends to 1.1664 and at most 1.1594. (13th September)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
This narrow range trading is frustrating. What I do note in the decline from 1.2150 is that the Wave iii marked is 176.4% of Wave i and thus we are currently within a small expanded flat (the 1.1817 low being around a 23.6% expansion) and this would imply a move back to the 1.1898 and probably the 38.2%-41.4% retracement in Wave â€“v at 1.1922-30.
That should then imply a Wave v that should extend by 61.8% to the 1.1735-41 area which also represents a 23.6% expansion of the 1.1814-1.2213 rally and is also where Wave (c) will have extended by 161.8%.
This should be followed by a second rally back to 1.2213.
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