Friday September 14, 2007 - 04:58:43 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD
||While 1.3903-26 caps I still see potential down to 1.3780-00 before moving higher again |
||The rally finally ended 4 points above the 1.3922 resistance and from there we have seen a modest reversal. Indeed, this looks as if it should extend to the 1.3780-00 area where I feel we can begin to buy again. Only a direct breach of 1.3903 and then 1.3926 would trigger earlier gains to 1.3967 â€“ watch this area as this could cap. However, my favored target for any bullish move is the 1.4039 area which should force a much larger reversal.|
||I am now looking at the potential of an expanded flat which has resistance points at 1.3967 and 1.4039. Earlier risk is for a pullback to 1.3680-1.3720 before higher. (13th September)|
||The cap at 1.3926 does seem to beg for the pullback to bite just a little deeper. There is resistance at 1.3903 and obviously the 1.3926 high but I feel a break back below 1.3857 is likely before too long at should then cause losses down through 1.3837 to 1.3815 and finally the 1.3780 area where I look for a reversal higher. Only below there extends closer to 1.3720 and possibly 1.3680.|
||With the break of 1.3882 I have to rework the likely peak. It is possible that we have seen it â€“ and a move below 1.3680 would confirm. However there does seem a stronger risk of seeing 1.4039 first. (13th September)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
The 1.3926 peak was close enough to the target set yesterday. However, the wave structure just isnâ€™t developing quite as expected and Iâ€™ve noticed an alternative which seems to be more logical and holds good Fibonacci relationships in the rally from 1.3550.
Thus I cautiously feel the 1.3718 high could well have been Wave (a) and the correction to 1.3550 was Wave (b). A wave equality target was at 1.3909. A 138.2% projection lies at 1.4046.
A 38.2% expansion of the 1.3851-1.3359 decline is at 1.4039. Thus I feel the 1.3926 high was Wave â€“iii- of Wave (c) with a 50% retracement in Wave â€“iv- expected to support at 1.3780.
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