User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday September 14, 2007 - 05:23:04 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email


Key News
• The Bank of England has agreed to give emergency financial support to the Northern Rock, one of the UK's largest mortgage lenders. (BBC)

GBPUSD Weekly:


Goldman's Global Alpha hedge fund declined 22.7% last month, the worst month in the fund's 12-year history…“August was a difficult month for the overall markets, but even more difficult for a surprising number of hedge funds. Some funds that use a ‘quantitative,’ or ‘quant,’ strategy of using models to set strategies and computers to carry them out got clobbered when many of the funds wound up having to sell similar investments at the same time, driving prices down…Global Alpha's dismal record this year is especially startling because it is a ‘multi-strategy fund’ and can engage in an array of strategies. In theory this should give it the flexibility to adapt to volatile and difficult markets and avoid problems arising from any single strategy. But over the past year practically everything Global Alpha touched went wrong.” (WSJ)

Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. August Import Prices. Expected: +0.1%. Previous: +1.5%.
8:30a.m. August Retail & Food Sales. Expected: +0.4%. Previous: +0.3%.
8:30a.m. August Retail & Food Sales, Ex-Autos. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.4%.
8:30a.m. 2Q Current Account Balance. Expected: -190B. Previous: -$192.6B.
9:15a.m. August Industrial Production. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.3%.
9:15a.m. August Capacity Utilization. Expected: 82.1%. Previous: 81.9.
10:00a.m. July Business Inventories. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.4%.
10:00a.m. Mid-Sep Reuters/U Of Mich Sentiment Index. Previous: 83.4.


“The provision of large liquidity facilities panalises those financial institutions that sat out the dance, encourages hear behavior and increases the intensity of future crises.”

     Mervyn King, Bank of England governor

FX Trading – Bookends?

In case you live you haven’t read a paper or watched TV for the last two days—oil spiked to over $80 per barrel.  Yikes!  And why do we care?  A few reasons: 1) We own cars and they ain’t hybrids; 2) the crude - $ connection makes a lot of sense; and 3) Crude at $80 may sow the seeds of its own price destruction, as it dents global growth, which by the way may already be getting dinged by the ongoing credit crunch.  The same crunch that claimed a new victim in the UK—Northern Rock; it’s one of the country’s largest mortgage lenders (Can you say: UK housing bust!). 

Anyway, back to crude and the lowly buck.  Below is a weekly chart comparing crude and the US$ Index inverted so you can see how it moves with crude i.e. the blue line going up is the US$ index inverted and it really means the dollar is going down as crude, the black line, rises):


Explanations abound, some that make sense to us:

1) Crude suppliers need to price their oil higher because the dollar is falling in value
2) Because the dollar is falling in value, crude oil suppliers are quickly exchanging their large stash of dollar earnings i.e. crude is priced in $’s on the world market (mostly), into other currencies. 

Hmmm…is it the chicken or the egg?  It sounds like a bit of the old vicious circle reasoning going on here.

Although we know little about the dynamics of oil, we suspect the price has something to do with global demand.  So, an oil price at $80 likely means global demand is still brisk—or was brisk.  And this idea of brisk global demand (or continued incredible high energy input per unit output in China) goes to the heart of the global decoupling theme i.e. all is right in the world except for the US so therefore dump dollars as fast as you can.  The US is no longer the big dog on the block; it’s sneezing and the world is immune.  So, buy oil, sell dollars, buy China, don’t worry about stocks with global exposure and sleep tight.

Maybe!  But as they say, maybe not!

We have always believed, and continue to believe, the subprime problem is global.  And global in the sense that derivatives contagion threatens housing in Europe, especially in the UK, Spain, and Italy.  Evidence is growing.  UK housing prices are slipping.  And a key mortgage lender, Northern Rock, is in trouble.  Spain needs more bodies to fill its housing stock, and Italy, basking in the glow of bond yields it shouldn’t possess thanks to the euro, and get the point. 

If we couple this with the fact that the ECB has pumped more money into the system than the US Fed (suggesting the banking system there is seizing more than in the US) and we add on the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, it could mean the engines of decoupling aren’t revving up as expected.

[Engines of decoupling: Euro-zone, UK, Japan, and China]

China is still blowing and going.  But as much as everyone loves China, it’s no Atlas.  A little more pollution, higher pig prices, a couple thousand more riots, and the realization that its companies are running on wafer thin margins and a lot of that is financial engineering thanks to the stock market…and viola—sleeping tight at night is no longer as easy as it used to be. Those dreams of decoupling could turn nightmarish fast.

Going out on a very thin reed, but here we go: Maybe a bell is ringing for the dollar.  It peaked on Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s emergency Fed funds rate of 1% back in 2000.  This is the rate that ushered in the credit binge we’ve witnessed for the last five years.  And now, Mr. G is back.  This time for the book tour, or shall we say the magical revisionist history tour.  How perfect would that be if Mr. G’s last hurrah was a bookend on the dollar bear market!  


Have a great weekend.  And an FYI if you are attending the Forex Expo in Vegas this weekend, I will be there as guest of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange—please stop by and say hello.  You can’t miss me; I’m the one who appears permanently sleep deprived. 

A slew of data out in the US today, so stay tuned. 

Take care and enjoy your weekend. 

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 9 July 2018
AA 12:00 EZ- Draghi EU Parliament Testimony
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105