Sunday September 12, 2004 - 14:14:38 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen September 13th 2004 Price: 109.55
Resistance: 109.75 ... 109.90 ... 110.30 ... 110.70
Support....: 109.40 ... 109.20 ... 108.80 ... 108.65
Initially rising to test the 109.70-90 resistance before lower
The Dollar failed marginally to reach the favored 110.45 target and has dropped quite strongly. However, we consider the first half of the day as being positive and should see price remain above 109.40 to allow the recovery to reach the 109.70-90 area. This stands a good chance of holding and thus we recommend caution in holding long positions at this point. Further resistance is at 110.30 and only above here would trigger stronger gains to above 110.70.
We feel the reversal from 110.32 signalled the end of the correction higher and thus the major direction is lower. We look for 109.70-90 to provide a good selling opportunity but stops will need to be placed above 110.30. From this corrective high we will expect to see a test of the 108.65-75 area once again which could cause a further pullback. Next support is at 108.00.
Elliott Wave Comments:
September 9th 2004
The failure at 110.69 and the subsequent decline has suggested that the peak at 110.69 was actually a Wave x high which should therefore imply losses to the original target at 107.60. This should come in a three-wave move with the first declining to approximately 108.60 before a pullback and decline to target.
September 13th 2004
The initial move lower referred to last week appears to have ended at 109.03 with the corrective Wave (b) peaking on Friday at 110.32. Thus we look for Wave (c) to make its way lower towards 108.00 minim um and probably the long held target at 107.60-65. 110.00-30 should hold for this to develop.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."