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Monday September 17, 2007 - 12:41:11 GMT
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Daily Forex Market Commentary for Monday, September 17, 2007

Monday, September 17, 2007 8:00 GMT
Daily Forex Market Commentary
By: Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT
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GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar rallied versus the pound in the wake of the developments in the UK. Carefully buying yen crosses and selling pound crosses should work, but shouldn’t last long because the European currencies are overstretched.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar made little progress on Friday, but the overbought pair didn’t form a bearish reversal. The downside is still favored.

Below 1.3840, euro/dollar now has support at 1.3790. This is followed by 1.3720 and 1.3635. Only a break below 1.3600 would signal the start of a downmove.

Initial resistance is seen at 1.3927. Next resistance is pegged at 1.3955. Above 1.4000 there is distant resistance at 1.4085.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen only edged higher on Friday, as the upmove seems limited. Only a close above 115.80 signals further strength.

Strong resistance is seen at 115.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00. Distant resistance is at 117.10.

Strong support is at 114.20 from another 50-point pivot that targets 113.70 and 114.70. Distant support follows at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot that targets 113.40 and 112.40.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar collapsed on Friday following the credit problem for Northern Rock, which required emergency funding from the Bank of England. Further weakness is likely.

Immediate support is seen at 2.0040. A break below the 2.0000 level would signal a further slide to 1.9900.

Above 2.0155, strong resistance follows at 2.0190. Distant resistance is at 2.0280.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

The oversold dollar/Swiss made a strong recovery on Friday from a near 2 ½-year low on Thursday. Following a brief bounce the sell-off should continue.

Initial resistance is at 1.1924. Above it, resistance is at 1.1970. Distant resistance comes at 1.2025.

Immediate support is at 1.1855. Below 1.1803, support is seen at 1.1788 and ten at 1.1740 from a pivotal low. Distant support is at 1.1715

Oscillators are slightly bullish.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

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