Forex Market News - Trade the News - European Market Update - BOE Held Rates Unanimously in September
European Market Update - BOE Held Rates Unanimously in September
ยท Economic Data
ยท GE Aug Producer Prices: M/M 0.1%; Y/Y 1.0% [in line with expectations]
ยท SP July Factory Orders Y/Y: 8.5% vs. 2.6% prior; Prior revised down from 2. 9%
ยท SZ July Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 3.3% vs. 5. 3%e
ยท IT July Industrial Orders: M/M -0.4% vs. -0.7%e; Y/Y 11.8% vs. 5.7%e
ยท IT July Industrial Sales: M/M 1.2% vs. -1.0%e; Y/Y 11.5% vs. 4.2% prior
ยท BOE Minutes
ยท BOE Minutes: Voted unanimously to hold rates at September 5/6 meeting
ยท BOE Minutes: Upside risks to inflation probably receded
ยท BOE Minutes: Impact of market turmoil unclear
ยท BOE Minutes: Inflation outlook more uncertain
ยท BOE Minutes: Saw limited slack and elevated prices indicators
ยท Market View: Minutes were dovish
ยท Goldman Sachs: Cuts 2008 US GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.4%
ยท UK Times: BOE may cut rates in wake of the US; Cites lower CPI y/y enabling the BOE to cut rates if needed to prevent an economic downturn
ยท ZEW Survey: 66% of experts see a high risk of sub-prime impacting financial sector stability
ยท ZEW Survey: 67% of experts see liquidity problems lasting a maximum of three months
ยท GE Economic Ministry: Sees limited impact on economic growth from financial market turbulence
ยท GE Economic Ministry: Increased risks are a result of Euro FX levels, oil prices, and market turbulence
ยท GE BDB Banking Association: Cuts 2007 German growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.7%; Maintains 2008 forecast of 2.0%
ยท GE BDB Banking Association: Market turbulence is manageable
ยท GE BGA Exporters Association: Risk of a cut in the 2008 exports growth forecast is rising due to US financial woes
ยท GE BGA Exporters Association: German exports seen declining 5% in 2007; Seen declining further in 2008
ยท GE BGA Exporters Association: US woes likely to cost the German economy a few tenths of a percentage point of growth
ยท Fixed Income/FX
ยท GE BGA Exporters Association: Sees โฌ/S range of $1.36-$1.42; Could reach a maximum of $1.43 [vs. $1.36-$1.40 forecast on 4/20]
ยท EUR/USD tests and holds $1.40 option barrier
ยท USD/CHF approaches 1.18 level; Has not broken 1.18 since April of 2005
ยท Post Asian Close
ยท BOJ Monthly Report: Leaves assessment unchanged in monthly report
ยท BOJ Monthly Report: Economy is expanding moderately [***]
ยท BOJ Monthly Report: Capex is a rising trend [***]
ยท BOJ Monthly Report: Rising wholesale prices expected to slow
ยท BOJ Fukui: Mizuno voted for a 25bps hike
ยท BOJ Fukui: Must watch how global economic developments effect Japan
ยท BOJ Fukui: Must watch the Tankan survey [Tankan is due 9/30]
ยท BOJ Fukui: There is a downside risk in the US economy [***]
ยท BOJ Fukui: Current rates are low; Will conduct policy in a timely manner [***]
ยท BOJ Fukui: Does not see the US economy falling into a recession [***]
ยท OPEC: Daily basket hits new all-time high of $74.92
ยท Nippon Oil guides Oct crude refining volume +6% y/y
ยท BP's Russian JV seeks to enter Venezuela - Kommerstant
ยท NHC: No tropical cyclone formations expected over the next 48 hours
ยท [***] Indicates that a comment is in line with previous comments
ยท Country Codes: GE = Germany; SP = Spain; SZ = Switzerland; IT = Italy; JP = Japan
ยท Central Banks: BOE= Bank of England; ECB = European Central Bank; BOJ = Bank of Japan
ยท Other: NHC = National Hurricane Center
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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