Wednesday September 19, 2007 - 13:01:58 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 19-Sep-2007....1249 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1829/32.....Support at 1.1800
R: 1.1840-50 / 1.1880
S: 1.1800 / 1.1760 / 1.1741
In a remarkable display of resilience, USD-CHF has remained above 1.1800 inspite of the sharp USD weakness against most other Major currencies. 1.1800 falls on a trendline Support on the Weekly Candles joining the lows of 1.2017 (May-06), 1.1880 (Dec-06) and 1.1816 (Aug-07). This may hold today as well, particularly while the EUR-USD stays below 1.4000.
The immediate Support for the USD-CHF below 1.1800 would be at 1.1760 and 1.1741, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. There must be a closing break below 1.1800 to convincingly indicate that it has broken. On the upside the immediate Resistance is at 1.1850 and 1.1890. The pair needs to move above 1.1850 to indicate some slowdown in selling pressure. However the longer term (3-4 weeks) trend for the pair continues to be bearish while below 1.2000.
GBP-USD @ 1.9983/86....Towards 200-DMA (1.9846) Again?
R: 2.0040 / 2.0080
S: 1.9940 / 1.9900 / 1.98
GBP-USD rallied to a high of 2.0173 during the day and then has had a very sharp fall to 2.0000, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. The decline came mainly on account of dovish BOE minutes, amid speculation of interest rate cuts later on in 2007.
Currently the pair is trading in a weak territory on an intraday basis and a close around these levels (below 2.0000) could induce further selling pressure tomorrow, possibly towards 1.9900 or the 200-DMA of 1.9846. The interim Support would come in at 1.9940. On the upside the Resistances are at 2.0040 and 2.0080. There is no trading bias for the pair currently.
AUD-USD @ 0.8511/13...Holding Long
The Australian Dollar has been one of the biggest gainers from the FED rate yesterday. This is probably because Japanese investments are more likely to flow towards Australia, rather than the USA now.
Technically, there is Support now in the 0.8480-60 region. And then again, near 0.8425. While these Supports hold (they should), the Aussie has potential to rise towards 0.8650-8700. Before that, there may be some Resistance near 0.8592, the 76.4% retracement of the fall from 0.8876 (25-Jul) to 0.7674 (17-Aug).
The Aussie has dipped intra-day, contrary to expectations, and could test the 0.8480 Support.
AUD 15K Long at 0.8520, SL 0.8414, TP 0.8640
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