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Friday September 21, 2007 - 05:10:34 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDJPY

 

Price:                            114.91

Resistance: 115.26 115.54 115.80 116.37
Support: 114.76 114.46 114.28 113.98

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: I see resistance at 115.26 and then not until 115.80 and support at 114.28-46

Daily Bullish: The break below 115.38 was not expected but did act as a reversal signal with losses finding a low at 113.98. I tentatively feel this may complete the correction and thus the direction is either sideways or higher. First resistance is at 115.26 and I feel this may well hold on first test and cause a pullback. Only above extends to 115.80 which again may hold. Only above 115.80 takes us back to 116.37.
MT Bullish: The depth of the pullback from 116.37 concerns but can still fit into a more bullish structure. However, this may suffer 114.28-115.80 range trading first. Only above 115.90 sees 116.37 and 117.12. (21st September)
Daily Bearish: Loss of 115.38 triggered losses not only to 114.47 but all the way down to 4 points below the deeper 114.02 support. I suspect this has completed the decline. Thus before getting too bearish we need to see a move back below 114.46 and also 114.28 to begin threatening the 113.98 low. If this breaks then the pressure will be lower for 113.69 and probably 113.28-47.
MT Bearish: Weekly cycles are bullish and I can’t see room on the downside. Thus only a break below 112.87-113.10 would begin to undermine and suggest a retest of the 111.57 low. (21st September)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Chart

21st September

I am not 100% happy with the wave count with the Wave (a) peak at 116.37 just a bit low, but is acceptable. However, the dip to 113.98 was a 61.8% correction in Wave (b) which seems a bit deep given the long and deep Wave (ii).

It is possible that Wave (ii) is developing as a triangle and this would imply a dip down to 113.34-47 before recovering again.

Any earlier break above 115.26 would possibly imply a triangle in Wave (b) and this would see resistance at 115.80.

Only above this higher resistance suggests we shall see direct gains in Wave (c).

Ian Copsey

 

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