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Friday September 21, 2007 - 08:53:36 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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180 Degree Scenarios

  • He is still talking…A big overhang of property will bring U.S. house prices down further, but it is too early to say if the economy will plunge into recession, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying on Friday. (Reuters)
      • …and we continue to wait to hear his excuse for recommending homeowners and new homebuyers load up on adjustable rate mortgages when long rates were at an all-time low at the time—a speech the all-knowing and all-seeing Mr. Greenspan gave during his dubious/illustrious/notorious tenure as Fed Chairman.  I have a feeling we won’t hear him talking about that much during his magical revisionist history book tour.

Key Reports Due (WSJ):

There are no economic indicators scheduled for today.

 

Quotable

 

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,

Than are dreamt in your philosophy.

 

                                                            William Shakespear, Hamlet
           

FX Trading – 180 Degree Scenarios

 

Oh so close to an all-time low in the US dollar index:

 

 

Pull the cover over the eyes or the Triple Whammy:

 

  • The US dollar index breaks the old low. 

 

  • The dollar spikes lower on a rash of cascading stop-loss orders.

 

  • Long bonds continue to tumble. We then learn the tumbling of the long bond over the past couple of days had nothing to do with inflation fears and everything to do with the beginning of Saudi and Chinese central bank selling.  China announces it will revalue its currency much higher because inflation is spinning out of control; thus they don’t need to hold as many US$ reserves (very much a by-product of pegging to another currency) and are dumping “some” US paper.  Ditto from Saudi Arabia. 

 

 

  • Falling bond prices and fear other central banks have to play the game to protect themselves leads to more selling of both bonds and the dollar.  That triggers major US asset risk concerns and stocks are dumped accordingly as institutions scramble once again for liquidity. 
  • Thus the making of a self-feeding vicious circle in the buck. Overshoot yes.  Where it would stop no one knows.

 

The big risk bounce and Dealer Delight

 

  • China’s new price control idea backfires and the Shanghai stock market tanks 20% in a day as domestic and global investors run for cover.  Other emerging stock markets follow this lead and tumble.
  • The European Central Bank finally makes it clear there is no way they will be hiking rates anytime soon, and may be cutting, given that the credit system is still precarious (not to mention France’s veiled threat to leave the system if ECB continues play the tough guy role). 
  • Another lender in the UK bellies up and another cue forms in the streets of London.
  • Crude oil falls $12 in the same day on the realization that global growth decoupling from the United States is now in jeopardy and President Bush’s announcement of a major release of US oil reserves into the market to take pressure off of US consumers.

Crude vs. $ Index – A mirror image?

 

  • This turn in crude prices just happens to coincide with the dollar index making an all-time low, allowing for Dealer Delight i.e. they sweep all the sell stops off the books just in time for a sharp dollar bounce.
  • Traders scramble to cover their dollar shorts.
  • Countries scramble to cover their dollar borrowing (effective shorting) that was needed to pay for oil at $80 per barrel.

And of course, there are a whole lot of scenarios wedged in between these two. 

 

Have a great weekend.

 

Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital

 

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