Tuesday September 14, 2004 - 00:07:07 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar September 14th 2004 Price: 1.2260
Resistance: 1.2285 ... 1.2308 ... 1.2345 ... 1.2380
Support....: 1.2245 ... 1.2220 ... 1.2200 ... 1.2180
Bearish to 1.2180-00 at least
We continue to consider the rally to 1.2308 to have exhausted the move higher and thus place more emphasis on a bearish view. We now see resistance around 1.2275-85 and only above here would begin to threaten the upside with breach causing a retest of 1.2308 and probable follow-through to 1.2340-45. However, if seen, we would expect this to hold and cause a reversal.
With the peak at 1.2308 implied under a triangle structure in the larger picture we feel the greater emphasis will be lower once again today. Thus we look for 1.2270-75 to hold and to allow further losses that should decline to breach the 1.2221 low seen yesterday and then reach 1.2180-00 at least and possibly even as far as 1.2160. However, this broad support around 1.2160-00 should spurn a pullback. Further support is seen at 1.2110.
Elliott Wave Comments:
6th September 2004
The drop on Friday clearly disappointed but we have cautiously retained a bullish count looking at Friday's decline as Wave -b- of a larger three wave rally to the 1.2280-00 area to complete Wave (c) of a triangle pattern. This would then form a high for the rest of the year although Waves (d) & (e) would need to develop before the downtrend can resume.
Any earlier break below the 1.1986 low would imply that the triangle scenario is incorrect and would spurn immediate downside implying the 1.2385 peak had already completed Wave B and that we are in the midst of a five wave decline lower in Wave C that would have potential to the 1.1860-90 area at least.
9th September 2004
We are overall encouraged with the move higher and look for Wave -c- to reach wave equality at 1.2255 at least and quite possibly the orginal target at 1.2280-00.
13th September 2004
With the 1.2208-00 target acheived we feel this completes Wave (c) of the triangle and as such this now implies a Wave (d) low of around 1.2260 approximately. Thus we look for an erratic move lower over this week and probably next to this target area. However, it should be noted that the 1.2308 area should prove to be the high for the rest of the year.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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