Monday September 24, 2007 - 02:54:37 GMT
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Daily Analysis for EURUSD
||I suspect we will see the Euro drift lower to 1.3985-00 else above 1.4123 sees 14184|
||The 1.4114-23 resistance held perfectly and we have seen a small pullback. I suspect we shall see more. Thus only back above 1.4101-23 will see the Euro extend further higher to 1.4156 and 1.4184 which should cap for now. Next resistance is then found at 1.4203.|
||After reviewing I have to say that it looks like we shall see a stronger move higher for the rest of the year. Thus while 1.3835 and max 1.3740 supports look for gains above 1.4123 to 1.4490 at least. (24th September)|
||The 1.4114-23 resistance area capped and provoked losses which stalled just above the 1.4016-30 support. I see resistance at 1.4101-23 and while this caps the downside looks more vulnerable. We require a break back below 1.4070 to trigger losses trough Fridayâ€™s 1.4041 low and on towards 1.3986-00 at least and potentially 1.3935 where a further pullback is possible. |
||While the 1.4123 resistance hasnâ€™t broken after review I am less bearish. However, there is risk of a pullback to 1.3835 and at most 1.3739. Only breach of 1.3739 would trigger stronger losses. (24th September)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I am mixed between two scenarios now. The first labels the 1.4119 high (allow for 1.4123) as Wave (i) and this would imply a pullback of around 50% which would generate support in Wave (ii) at 1.3739. From here a Wave (iii) higher can develop.
Alternatively continue to monitor the possible 223.6% projection in alternative Wave (iii) which is at 1.4277 so keep this is mind.
Once we see the next larger move we should be able to confirm the wave count. However, bearing in mind that the rally should last until January it would appear more likely to see a deeper pullback in Wave (ii) to 1.3739.
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