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Monday September 24, 2007 - 12:17:59 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 22-Sep-2007....1117 GMT

Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below

USD-CHF @ 1.1711/16.....Sell a rally
R: 1.1740 / 1.1770
S: 1.1684 / 1.1650 / 1.1628
USD-CHF had a sharp fall last week and the pair continues within its bearish territory, at its lowest level since Apr-2005. The pair is currently headed towards 1.1500-1.1483, which could be tested over the next two weeks. On the upside the pair is expected to face significant Resistance near 1.1800-10, rallies towards which could be used to sell. The pair needs to move above the latter to reduce the chances of a downside in the next couple of weeks. The Support for the week is at 1.1600. For today the Support is at 1.1687-84, the low which was seen last week and earlier today.

Below this the Support is at 1.1650 and 1.1628, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside the Resistance is at 1.1740 and 1.1774-83, the statistically projected Max High for the day. The bias for the pair is bearish and we would like to sell a rally, if seen.

Limit Sell Order:
Sell USD 25K at 1.1770, SL 1.1840, TP 1.1600

 GBP-USD @ 2.0242/46.....Intraday neutral bias
R: 2.0290 / 2.0330 / 2.0381
S: 2.0200-180 / 2.0150
GBP-USD was very choppy last week as the pair hit a low of 1.9875 and then had a sharp rally to a high of 2.0220. The pair is currently following up on that rally, and with that the pair could have bottomed out. However there is still no confirmation of that. For the confirmation, the pair needs to move above its Resistance of 2.0303, which comes out on the trendline on the daily charts joining the highs of 2.0657 (24-July) and 2.0368 (12-Sep). Importantly a move above that needs to be sustained. (Note that GBP-USD tested a high of 2.0322 intraday, which was not sustained.)

On the downside the Support for the week is at 2.0150, below which there could be a fall towards 2.0000. As such, the pair would be a buy only on dips, because the bullishness is not confirmed yet.

In the short term, the pair has a Resistance at 2.0290 and 2.0330. The statistically projected Max High for the day is at 2.0381. On the downside the Supports are at 2.0200-180 and 2.0150-34, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. The bias for the day is largely neutral to slightly bearish towards 2.0180.

 AUD-USD @ 0.8695/99....Bullish Biased
R: 0.8695- 0.8705 / 0.8740
S: 0.8670 / 0.8640 / 0.8600
AUD-USD was on a rampage last week and the pair gained very sharply by almost 300 pips. It gained almost 400 pips from its lows of 0.8275, in an impressive display of strength. The pair is expected to retain that strength this week and it could move up towards 0.8800 or even its 2007 High of 0.8876, which was seen on 27-July. On the downside the Support for the week would come in at 0.8600 and 0.8550.

The pair is currently trading at its Resistance of 0.8695 - 0.8705, and a sustained move above that is likely to result in a rally towards 0.8740. On the downside the Supports would come in at 0.8660-55 and then at 0.8620. The latter needs to be broken on a daily close basis to question the current upside potential. The bias is currently bullish and dips should be used to buy.


Happy Trading!


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