Tuesday September 25, 2007 - 05:09:37 GMT
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Daily Analysis for USDCHF
||While 1.1699-17 supports look for gains to move above 1.1766-73 for 1.1800 and higher|
||The pullback was deep but remained above 1.1677 and this therefore retains a bullish structure. It looks as if early trading may well maintain a small sideways pattern between 1.1699-1.1766 but this should break higher once completed and generate a test of 1.1790-00 at least. Take care at this pivot resistance â€“ only above extends to 1.1851. The ultimate target is around 1.1878 and 1.1914 but this is not expected to occur directly. |
||Only while the 1.1664-77 area continues to hold and generates a test back above 1.1720-46 is the likelihood of a mildly deeper pullback to the 1.1878-1.1914 but that should cap. (24th September)|
||Yesterdayâ€™s attempt lower still didnâ€™t manage to break below 1.1677 and this remains key to the downside. Thus only look to get bearish if we see the 1.1677 level give way. We should then be careful of the 1.1654 level but if a test is seen the greater risk is then lower to 1.1572-84 which should hold on first test. |
||The overall trend remains bearish but we may well first see recovery to 1.1878-1.1914 before the downside can come under pressure again. Below 1.1677 extends to 1.1572-84 and 1.1441. (25th September)|
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
I feel Fridayâ€™s low at 1.1677 is most likely to have provided a low in Wave â€“a- of Wave â€“iii- lower. This would imply a correction in Wave â€“b- which could reach the 50% pullback at 1.1914 â€“ but do note the 41.4% correction at 1.1878.
If seen this should cap and allow Wave â€“iii-lower to develop which should reach the 223.6% projection at 1.1584 at least.
So far so good. I still look for Wave â€“b- to develop back to 1.1914 but watch pivot resistance at 1.1800 first.
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