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Friday September 28, 2007 - 11:49:19 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
High-Yielders doing very well; US dollar index hits record low
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
High-yielding currencies which include the Australian and New Zealand dollars, Euro-Yen and Pound-Yen all posted gains while the US Dollar index hit a new low of 78.16. The market has priced in expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed by the end of 2007, as well as a possible rate hike by the European Central Bank in the medium term. Traders continue to forecast continued bad news for the dollar as the broader economy weakens. Key reports today will give the market a better view of inflation and where exactly interest rates may go in the future.
Norway posted a low unemployment figure of 1.8%, down 0.2% from August (2.0%). The announcement came in less tight than expected; however, economists indicate that 1.8% is (positively) low. The Norges Bank did add that concerns of higher inflation still remain a risk and was the reasoning behind the 25 basis point hike in interest rates on Wednesday.
Gold spot hit $739 this morning on continued demand/supply imbalances driven by seasonal jewelry demand from India and China. The precious metal is holding very strong as the dollar remains weak, crude oil holds firm, and uncertainty strangles the financial markets.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
09:00 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence SEP -4 vs -3
09:00 EC Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence SEP 4 vs 5
09:00 EC Business Climate Indicator SEP 1.3 vs 1.41
09:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) SEP 2.10% vs 1.70%
09:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) SEP P 0.10% vs 0.20%
09:00 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence SEP 109 vs 110
09:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) SEP P 1.80% vs 1.60%
09:00 EC Euro-Zone Services Confidence SEP 19 vs 20
09:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) SEP P 0.70% vs -0.20%
09:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) SEP P 1.80% vs 1.70%
09:30 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey SEP -6 vs -4
12:30 US Personal Income AUG 0.40% vs 0.50%
12:30 CA Gross Domestic Product MoM JUL 0.40% vs 0.20%
12:30 US Personal Income AUG 0.40% vs 0.50%
12:30 US Personal Spending AUG 0.40% vs 0.40%
12:30 US PCE Deflator (YoY) AUG
12:30 US PCE Core (MoM) AUG 0.10% vs 0.10%
12:30 US PCE Core (YoY) AUG 1.80% vs 1.90%
13:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager SEP 53 vs 53.8
14:00 US Construction Spending MoM AUG -0.20% vs -0.40%
14:00 US U. of Michigan Confidence SEP F 84 vs 83.8
14:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee SEP
The Risk Today:
EurUsd up trend holds firm above 1.4043. Major support at 1.3936.
GbpUsd 2.0370 is a key level for the pair. Buy the break out. Support holding firm down to 2.0000.
UsdJpy resistance holding at 116.11 and 117.13. Strong support found at 112.60.
UsdChf downtrend still intact. Initial resistance holding at 1.1772 and support at 1.1638.
Resistance and Support:
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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