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Tuesday September 14, 2004 - 14:19:34 GMT

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Daily Forex Market Commentary by Global Forex Trading

Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, forex analyst, Global Forex Trading

The dollar saw the expected sideways trading on Monday versus the major European currencies but made a powerful rally against the yen. This strength of the dollar/yen owes to the expected Sony acquisition of US’ MGM and to a lesser extent to the North Korean massive explosion last Thursday, which could be nuclear. The dollar remains near its lows made on Friday versus the euro, pound and franc, and this suggests further weakness, but more proof is needed. Even dollar/yen should see some pullback on the day. Expect at least temporary spikes on the release of US Retail Sales report for August, which is expected to show a contraction.


The euro/dollar marked time in a tight range and within an inside range after rallying sharply on Friday.

Once again, the key level that needs to give way on a closing basis to confirm that the current rally will persist is 1.2310. If successful the euro/dollar should rally to 1.2389 and a break above this pivotal high would add further momentum to this upmove.

The support at 1.2220 held well on Monday, and any short-term pullback should once again hold above this level. Only close below 1.2220 would signal a slide to 1.2190 and eventually to 1.2130.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish


Dollar/yen surged on Monday to a one-week high of 110.34 and this rally obliterated all of the losses incurred on Friday. However, the pair trimmed gains in late trading, and this suggests further losses on profit taking in Asia and probably for the rest of the day.

There is immediate support at 109.80. A break lower would signal an attempt to touch the strong support at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65. An unexpected break below 108.65 would target the nearby 108.50 level and then the pivotal support at 108.08.

Above 110.34, dollar/yen still has distant resistance from a Fibonacci retracement level at 111.00. The next resistance remains at 111.60 from the 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10, should not be seen today.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish


Sterling/dollar trotted in place and consolidated around its 20-day moving average after rallying sharply on Friday. The fact that it gave little back and remained perched near the recent high suggests that it will take another stab higher on Tuesday.

The first resistance comes at 1.8020 and a break above this line would call for a further rally and of a test of the pivotal high at 1.8064. A break above this level would signal a test at 1.8100.

First significant support remains at 1.7900. It will take a break below the nearby support at 1.7880 to signal a sharp decline to 1.7800, but this is unlikely today.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc saw most of recovery after tanking on Friday, but its further upmove on Monday had only rubber legs. The inability to retain much of this corrective bounce suggests that the decline will resume shortly.

Immediate support remains between 1.2530 and 1.2520 and a break below Friday’s low of 1.2520 would call for a test of the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2466. Below 1.2422, support only comes at 1.2400 and then at 1.2376.

If dollar/Swiss franc manages to recover on a more sustained basis expect a break on a closing basis above the 1.2630 area. If successful, the pair would likely attempt a further upmove to 1.2789.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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