Thursday October 4, 2007 - 13:45:34 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
FOREX: GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results
In the October monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has deteriorated. The three-month ahead mean forecast for EUR/USD was 1.4148 from 1.3880 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point (October 2 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.4155.
The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was about neutral in the EUR/USD at 48 from 56 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast improved to 115.24 from 112.56 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 115.85. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index was about neutral. It was 49 after 45.
Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $77.88 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $75.18 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked when they felt Libor spreads would return to â€śnormalâ€ť levels. Only 15% expected such a change before the end of the year. The bulk (70%) expect normalcy by the close of 1Q08, while the remaining 15% expect such a development after the close of 1Q08.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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