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Friday October 5, 2007 - 09:15:16 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

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It all seems bad

Key News
• September payrolls are expected to grow by 100,000 after a 4,000 decrease in August, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. (Bloomberg)
• Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Sep Nonfarm Payrolls. Expected: +110K. Previous: -4K.
8:30a.m. Sep Unemployment Rate. Expected: 4.7%. Previous: 4.6%.
9:40a.m. ECRI Inflation Gauge. Previous: 116.8.
3:00p.m. August Consumer Credit. Previous: +$7.5B.

“There is a universality in financial markets that spans the many trading systems over a long period of time…Markets are ultimately reflective of the most base human emotions of fear and greed, and the secular changes in individual markets are manifestations of the behavioral shifts between these two powerful forces.”

                                                      F.J. Chu

FX Trading – It seems all bad

Does support that becomes resistance then become support again?  I’m talking about the infamous 7819-level on the US dollar index that held since 1992, up until recently anyway.  The buck has now bounced back above the magic 7819 number.  Is it meaningless?  Is it expected consolidation before another surge lower? Or is it meaningful?  And from a meaningful side, I guess the question would be: Is all the bad news already priced into the buck? 

Bad News That We Know:

1. Fed “will” cut interest rates by another 50 basis points by March ‘08

2. The US “will” be dragged either into or very close to the edge of recession because the housing market “will” get worse

3. Mr. US Consumer “is” on his last legs; the consumer spending ballgame is about over

4. Europe “can” live with EURUSD at 1.45-1.50

5. Gulf States “will” abandon the dollar peg and dump dollars

6. More countries other than Iran “will” begin selling oil in euro instead of dollars

7. The globe “has” decoupled from the US economy

8. Current account deficits “do” matter (just don’t tell Australia and the UK)

Bad News We Suspect:

1. China will let its currency float much faster, and dump dollar holdings along the way (they’re probably not too happy with surge in US bond prices boosting their portfolio since mid June)

2. The Fed “will” be forced to stall rate cuts in fear of a dollar disaster (which means bad news number one above may be in jeopardy)

3. The dollar’s world reserve status is in jeopardy (only problem here is to identify who fills the void; the euro may be the candidate, but we still suspect deep down many believe the European Monetary System will face a real test in the not too distant future)

4. US assets will become increasingly unattractive (forget that US multinational earnings are soaring and real estate is getting cheaper by the day)

I am sure you can think of more bad news about the US dollar.  Just spend a couple of hours watching CNBC or Bloomberg TV if you can’t. 

Now, for all the eternal dollar optimists out there, the next list is the list of good news (readily available via our financial news product purveyors) that is priced into the dollar:

Hmmm………………………………………………… (Sorry Charley!)

None of the above is to suggest for one moment that the news can’t get worse for our dwindling greenback.  We have learned many times over that anything can and will happen in actively traded asset markets.  We know the consensus can be right for much longer than we think they “should” be.  But today’s comments are to suggest that maybe even a ray of good news for the buck may have an unusually large impact if such bad news is already “in the price.”

Non-farm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. EDT!  Get ready to rumble!

And after rumbling today, have a great weekend. 

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital


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