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Friday October 5, 2007 - 11:54:33 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
BoE and ECB hold rates; US Payrolls expected to slowly rebound
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
Yesterday, the Bank of England and European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 5.75% and 4.00% respectively. ECB President Trichet announced that the ECB is concerned about the status quo of the financial markets but also reiterated that price stability remains high on its watch-list. The market expects no further rate changes this year. The Bank of England did not release a statement.
US initial jobless claims came out weaker than expected, 317k actual vs 310k predicted. This disappointing figure comes ahead of today‚Äôs labor numbers which may not rebound as well as anticipated. Traders say that any number below the expected 100k will send the dollar falling further on the indication that job prospects are gradually fading thanks to troubles in the credit and housing market. The EURUSD currently trades at 1.4115 while the GBPUSD holds at 2.0341.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
10:00 EC Euro-Zone OECD Leading Ind. AUG
11:00 CA Unemployment Rate SEP 6.10% vs 6.00%
11:00 CA Net Change in Employment SEP 17.0K vs 23.3K
12:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls SEP 98k vs -4k
12:30 US Unemployment Rate SEP 4.70% vs 4.60%
12:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls SEP -10K vs -46K
12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings MoM SEP 0.30% vs 0.30%
12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings YoY SEP 4.00% vs 3.90%
12:30 US Average Weekly Hours SEP 33.8 vs 33.8
19:00 US Consumer Credit AUG $9.5B vs $7.5B
The Risk Today:
EurUsd up trend holds firm above 1.4065. Major support at 1.3974. Key resistance at 1.4201.
GbpUsd Support holds firmly at 2.0248 (to buy at this level would be a Winnipeg trade). Resistance found at 2.0495.
UsdJpy a break out of 117.61 would be very bullish. Support found down to 115.92.
UsdChf anything below 1.1816 is bearish.
Resistance and Support:
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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