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Friday October 5, 2007 - 16:38:42 GMT
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Forex and Commodity Market Commentary and Analysis (5 October 2007)

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4155 level and was supported around the $1.4030 level.  The common currency came off after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. September non-farm payrolls that saw 110,000 new jobs created last month, consistent with expectations.  There was a sizable upward revision to August’s jobs tallies of 91,000 jobs and that temporarily pushed the greenback higher.  The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7% and average hourly earnings were up 0.4% in September. Average hourly earnings are now up 4.1% over the past year, the highest rate since February.  Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn today said the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate cut last month was “a first approximation of what might be required to keep the economy on a sustainable growth path.”  Kohn added the 50bps reduction in the federal funds target rate “will not be able to avert all of the weakness in the economy but that may be in train for several months.” He justified the 50bps cut saying “sluggish or inadequate easing risked a weaker real economy that might cause lenders to pull back even more.” The German media reported the Federal Reserve “has resisted calls from other G7 nations for joint interventions such as selling euros.”  G7 officials will meet soon and dealers expect the communiqué will reference the disorderly nature of exchange rate markets and/ or call for exchange rates to move in accordance with economic fundamentals.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.4055 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥117.30 level and was supported around the ¥116.35 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from ¥124.15 to ¥111.60.  The pair reached its highest level since 15 August as traders continue to increase their risk appetite.  Data released in Japan saw the August index of leading economic indicators fall to 30.0 from 72.7 in July while the coincident index improved to 83.3 from 70.0 in July.  Other data released today saw September foreign reserves climb US$ 13.44 billion from August to US$ 945.60 billion.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.16% to close at ¥17,065.04.  Dollar bids are cited around the ¥114.75 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥165.10 level and was supported around the ¥164.20 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc climbed higher vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥238.30 and ¥99.20 levels, respectively. 


The British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 2.0440 level and was supported around the $2.0300 level.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.9180 to $2.0655.  Data released in the U.K. today saw median pay settlements down to 3.2% in the three months to September from 3.3% in the three months to August. Traders await the release of Tuesday’s pre-Budget report by Chancellor Darling and the Comprehensive Spending Review. Many U.K.-watchers believe Prime Minister Brown will call a general election imminently.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 2.0270 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.6910 level and was capped around the ₤0.6940 level. 




The Swiss depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1855 level and was supported around the CHF 1.1740 level.  Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 1.2145 to CHF 1.1620l.  Dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1885 level.  The euro and British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested offers around the CHF 1.6660 and CHF 2.4070 levels, respectively.


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