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Monday October 8, 2007 - 12:39:54 GMT
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ACM - www.ac-markets.com
Payrolls slightly better than expected; Dollar cannot hold gains
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland
News and Events:
The much awaited Non-Farm Payrolls report was released on Friday, expanding by 110,000, slightly better than the expected 89,000 and much better than the previous -4,000. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.7% as expected. As a result of the payrolls report, market sentiment now points to a 52% Fed rate cut of 25 basis points in October, compared to 72% prior to Friday's report. Many analysts warn though that the recent gain in payrolls was the result of more public-sector jobs rather than private sector job creation. With the unemployment rate rising twice in the last three months, the Fed has enough to worry about. The currency market reflected that view as the dollar rose against the majors at the release of the payrolls data; however could not hold on to those gains as investors still remain pessimistic on the short-term outlook for the US economy and the dollar. EURUSD opened on Friday at 1.4136, hit a low of 1.4033 and closed at 1.4138.
Canada's employment report showed a gain of 51,100, beating the expected 17,500 and up more than double from August's 23,300. Furthermore, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% in September from 6.0% in August. A weakening dollar and higher commodity prices sent the USDCAD pair crashing: opening for the day at 0.9968, hitting a low of 0.9787 and closing at 0.9806.
Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
08:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence SEP 0.20% vs 0.10%
08:30 UK PPI Input s.a. (MoM) SEP 0.20% vs 0.40%
08:30 UK PPI Input NSA (YoY) SEP 1.70% vs 1.30%
08:30 UK PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM) SEP 115.22 vs 114.97
08:30 UK PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY)
08:30 UK PPI Output Core SA (MoM) AUG
08:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM) SEP
08:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) Oct-08
08:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) AUG 11.0B vs 10.4B
08:30 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) AUG 31.0B vs 29.7B
10:00 GE Factory Orders YoY (nsa) SEP $98.0B vs $56.2B
The Risk Today:
EurUsd Uptrend still in tact, however a very bullish setup above 1.4158. Support holds at 1.4034.
GbpUsd Key support holds at 2.0235 while resistance firmly at 2.0495.
UsdJpy the breakout of the triangle formation of the past couple weeks places a short term target of 117.61. Support holds at 116.40 and key level at 115.85.
UsdChf look for today's close price. Anything below 1.1807 is bearish; above is bullish.
Resistance and Support:
|S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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